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President
Yoweri Museveni sent ripples across the country last week, when he
declared that he can win an election without the support of Buganda
kingdom.
Coming in the wake of unease in the talks between the
Central Government and Buganda over federal status, the President's
declaration raises a fundamental question: can Museveni really do
without Mengo?
Some
don't think so. "The President is nearing hell. He needs Mengo, and
without it, he is doomed," says Kawempe North MP Sebuliba Mutumba.
"The President is committing political suicide and we all know that he
cannot live without Buganda," Kyadondo South MP Issa Kikungwe adds.
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| THE MAN WITH THE KEY: President
Museveni |
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| EAGER, BUT UNCERTAIN QUEST: Kabaka Ronald
Mutebi |
President
Museveni and Buganda go back a long way. He used Buganda as his
stronghold for five years (1981-1986) during the guerrilla war that
brought him to power, ousting the Okello junta in January
1986.
Throughout the war, it is the Baganda peasants that sustained
his rebel army and sacrificed not only property but also their lives.
Many were killed by the state at the slightest association with
Museveni and his National Resistance Army. That was beginning of
Museveni’s love affair with the peasants, especially those in
Buganda.
In 1993,
President Museveni gave back Buganda what Milton Obote had taken away
in 1966 - the Kabakaship. In 1998, when Parliament passed a new Land
Act, pro-royalist Mengo top shots in Buganda frowned because they
couldn't evict any squatters at free will and had to compensate them
if evicted. But the peasants who are mostly squatters, smiled.
Little
wonder that even though in urban Buganda, Museveni scored poorly; he
triumphed where it mattered most - among the peasants deep, in low
down Buganda.
To
Museveni now what matters is not Mengo per se, but the fragile lots of
Baganda so oblivious of what their rights are, who only care about
salt and sugar, plus food being at the table.
Issue is,
the Mengo establishment only has limited grip; nothing compared to
Museveni's machinery in the local councils and resident district
commissioners that control the grass roots. No wonder when the
President met the local government leaders from Buganda last week,
they voted in unison to have two legislative councils for Buganda. Not
surprisingly, the President reportedly said that Government had tried
to accommodate Buganda's demands, though Mengo was not appreciating.
The
President has obviously read the situation thus: Mengo may rouse
sentiments in some areas around Buganda; but the hearts of the
peasants lie in President Museveni's hands and they would not easily
choose another over him, just because the other is promising federo.
Apparently certain that he is getting his mathematics correct, the
President now feels he can now ditch the kid gloves, handle Buganda
with bare hands - and get away with it.
MP Issa
Kikungwe feels that the President is on a divide and rule policy
specifically to taint Mengo as a bunch of greedy, unthankful lots. The
President is in a strong position. Cabinet is obviously backing him.
In Parliament where a vote on federalism would take place, the
President has no real worries.
Three
quarters of the Buganda Caucus owe allegiance more to the Movement
than to Mengo. MP Kikungwe calls them 'snakes within the caucus, who
will at whatever cost vote in the government favour'. The rest of the
House (the majority at least) so far don't seem to be impressed with
Buganda's demands.
In a
national plebiscite, as recent opinion polls show, it's highly
unlikely that federo would carry the day. President Museveni remains
the most important factor in whether Buganda realises its aspirations.
Within the Parliament corridors however, MP's are bracing themselves
for the task ahead: a final solution to the federo
question.
MP Salamu
Musumba contends, "This generation must live to the challenge and
solve the Federo issue once and for all. What don't we have? Is it the
brains or what?" So far this seems ominously certain to be only one
thing: hammering the last nails into the federo
coffin. | 
