Edward Mulindwa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
NumeHow many Baganda like Kabaka?EmTorontoThe Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in anarchy"
Groupe de communication Mulindwas
"avec Yoweri Museveni, l'Ouganda est dans l'anarchie"_______________________________________________----- Original Message -----From: Simon NumeSent: Tuesday, October 05, 2004 8:09 AMSubject: Re: [Ugnet] Fwd: Can the President survive the sting and sentiment ofMengo?MusamizeWhere does the Monitor get these fools who write such articles from ?In another Monitor article of the same day Ssemakula Kiwanuka is quoted as saying that the elite Baganda are not behind the Kabaka. Now this writer tells us that the rural Baganda are behind M7 not the Kabaka, since he M7 toured the villages and came to that conclusion.Copying from Mutufu; heheheheNume
musamize ssemakula <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Note: forwarded message attached.
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Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2004 11:41:43 -0700 (PDT)
From: J Ssemakula <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Can the President survive the sting and sentiment of Mengo?
To: Buganda Discussion <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, [EMAIL PROTECTED],
baana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
_______________________________________________Can the President survive the sting and sentiment of Mengo?
INSIDE WHITE PAPER: By Charles Etukuri
Sept 29 - Oct 06, 2004
The Cabinet White Paper recommendation that cultural leaders be subjected to Parliamentary control has left many gasping in disbelief - and others seething with rage - as it means that for the first time, a popularly elected legislature could have powers to unseat one born a king. The move specificall y targets Buganda where the Kabakaship is regarded as sacred and untouchable.
The Mengo government had actually calculated that by bringing their demands for federal status at the time when the 2006 elections were nearing would have brought the government to its knees. The mathematics of Mengo was the federo demands could be a trade off with the third term project.
Mengo partially succeeded in as far as it was able to bring the President to meeting them…and that was all. The threats and arm-twisting that characterised the talks suggest there was no genuineness in the talks; Mengo pushing with threats and Government content to delay and lengthen the talking while promising nothing really substantial.Mengo remained entirely conservative and fixed, asking for federal status, Kampala city and the famous 9000 square miles. Government gave out a few concessions like Mengo municipality instead of Kampala, a regional tier instead of federal status and two councils instead of one Kabaka-appointed Lukiiko.
With this position President Museveni was aided in that it partially portrayed him as the genuine party with the talks and because of the conservativeness of Mengo he opted to instead to meet his people who speak his "Ekisanja" language the Local council, who in effect entirely endorsed his view in amidst of the talks with Mengo.
The failed talks have been followed by this latest bombshell that would have the effect of not only trimming the Kabaka's already short wings; but could also see him shown the door by what is in Luganda speak, the bakopi or peasantry. This is arguably a classic ba rometer of the President's confidence: that he has a broader assured support outside Buganda and a fair one in Buganda that would be enough to make him win an election.
President Museveni has consistently been on the mark as saying that he can as well win the elections without Buganda apparently having toured the countryside the President is assured there is rural support to back him up. The President's support seems to lie in the peasants right from the bush days to date. It's on these that his hopes for Ekisanja rest, not the elite, ultra-conservatives in Mengo. The federo demands had an effect of challenging his peasantry support and bowing down to demands like the 9000 square miles could in effect never have been acceptable to him.
Within urban Buganda Museveni often fares badly. But in the villages he is just a notch lower than a demi-god. Addressing the nation on star FM recently, the President said he was aware that Mengo didn't support him even in 1996 and 2001 ; but pointed out that he wasn't scared.
Museveni has the political support across Buganda and this political support is in the hands of local council officials whom he preferred to meet, Resident District Commissioners, among other officials within the Local Government system who are in touch with the demands of the people. Mengo establishment relies basically on cultural sentiments as basis of selling their conservative federal ideals.
However it appears that Museveni has the upper hand now. Buganda has for long used cultural sentiments effectively to rally support against any body that has threatened the existence and institution of the Kabaka. This apparently succeeded in 1953 against Sir Andrew Cohen when he deported the Kabaka who though fighting entirely for Buganda's special status was alternatively regarded as a nationalist. The capacity and ability to organise masses in line of ebyaffe largely put Buganda as a superior "state" giving it a special status i n Uganda.
The view at the time appears to have been that neither the protectorate government nor the nationalist politicians could afford to ignore Buganda in the move towards independence and its demands and interests had to be given a special respect .
Buganda has effectively carried this colonial hangover and favouritism all along and the postcolonial period clearly evidenced this. Now that President Museveni has ventured into untouchable domain by threatening to do the previously unthinkable, can Mengo rally the Buganda against him?
It appears this may be impossible now. Mengo may arise the sentiments of Buganda urban elite who can shout in the FM radio stations but the hearts of the peasants lies in Museveni.
Outside Buganda, the North is probably the only region where President Museveni could struggle - as he always has at elections. But his recent gains in the war, promises of bigtime reconstruction for northern Uganda and on-going tough campaigns to woo northern voters suggest he could make further gains in votes. Otherwise in the East, West and Southwest, he still commands the numbers as usual. It is clear the President has done his mathematics homework and is getting the figures right. With that, nobody except no one, is too hot to touch.© 2004 The Monitor Publications
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