[Ugnet] Shock Therapy for Northern Uganda's Peace Process

The peace process aimed at ending Northern Uganda's extraordinarily brutal eighteen-year war is in critical condition, but it may still be possible to resuscitate it if the Ugandan government and international community act decisively.

Shock Therapy for Northern Uganda's Peace Process [pdf],* the latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the prospects for a negotiated settlement between Kampala and the insurgent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which has recently stepped up the scale and frequency of its horrific attacks on civilians. It calls for Ugandan government mediator Betty Bigombe to present a new, comprehensive peace proposal directly to LRA chief Joseph Kony. If such a proposal is to be credible, however, it will require increased support from the European troika of Norway, the UK and the Netherlands and a more engaged United States.

"Kony won't agree to and implement a ceasefire that ignores the LRA's two central concerns -- the physical security and livelihoods of LRA members after any settlement", says John Prendergast, Special Adviser to the President of Crisis Group. "If the government really wants to make this work, it will have to replace its ceasefire-first approach with a deal that includes appropriate security guarantees for Kony and his commanders, and a peace dividend to help rebuild war-ravaged communities".

Although the LRA has been hurt by the improved performance of the Ugandan military, reduced support from the Sudanese government, and pressure from the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation, reports of the insurgency's death are greatly exaggerated. From a base in Southern Sudan, the LRA leadership is reorganising for intensified conflict and has launched an aggressive campaign of abductions, mutilations, and raids on arms depots. Atrocities include kidnapping of children to turn them into LRA fighters and cutting off the lips, ears and breasts of women who were caught while gathering firewood or drawing water from wells in Northern Uganda.

In February, the government decided not to extend its unilateral, limited ceasefire after the LRA failed to demonstrate goodwill. Kampala appears to be losing patience with mediation efforts, refocusing instead on a military solution and expanding efforts to target LRA leaders.

The ICC is prepared to issue warrants against LRA leaders suspected of committing crimes against humanity, a step that if not handled carefully could drive the rebels definitively out of the peace process. However, ICC officials are well aware of the risk and are undertaking activities which have increased mutual understanding with Northern Ugandan civil society.

"Given the attitudes of the parties, the peace process will disintegrate without more vigorous, sustained international, particularly U.S., support", says Suliman Baldo, Crisis Group's Africa Program Director. "If this chance slips away, the people of Northern Uganda will be condemned to more violence and abductions -- for who knows how much longer".

[Ugnet] Shock Therapy for Northern Uganda's Peace Process

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