*The story of Lumumba Chavez* October 21, 2013 Mai Jukwa<http://www.herald.co.zw/category/s7-blogs/c93-mai-jukwa/>
AN enormous woman, dressed in that charming overdose of colour unique to these parts, gestures for attention. Impatient, she lets out a deafening yell. It’s impossible to ignore. The occupied trader quickly turns to her, instinctively packs an assortment of fruit, grabs the sweaty note from her hand and offers back what must be the right amount of change. They are not strangers. The marketplace is noisy and chaotic, but amidst the chaos is a bustling productivity. “Yams madam, these ones number one if you waste time no buy dey finish,” a trader warns. These markets can be found in cities across the country. Thousands of small-scale local farmers have built an impressive farming economy supplying an assortment of fruits and vegetables. It’s an imaginative setup that cuts out the middleman. Food prices have been falling since the government gave special land concessions at strategic city points to allow farmers to sell directly to consumers. Government builds and then offers these lucrative marketplace concessions to farmers but imposes maximum prices for the various goods. Pricing is a precondition for trader access to the busy markets. This is Nigeria 2027. Lumumba Chavez, a young, smart and charismatic leader, recently came to power. An economist educated at Oxford, he has broad experience working a variety of roles at the World Bank and is a respected authority on Economic Structural Adjustment Programmes. His résumé is quite impressive. He cemented his reputation as an effective policy architect after playing an instrumental role in reviving Zimbabwe’s economy 13 years ago. By prescribing innovative economic reforms that leveraged untapped mineral resources as collateral, he unlocked investment capital double the nation’s GDP. The nation has enjoyed impressive growth since then. The election that brought him to office was flawless, free and fair in every way. It was an inevitable win; his nationalist Africa-is-rising rhetoric inspired and captivated the nation. The youths are particularly excited. A remarkable unity of purpose is being witnessed in Nigeria; even the opposition grudgingly accepts that the right man got the job. A jubilant expectation pervades the nation. Chavez introduces sweeping reforms, it is clear he means business. Within the first three years of his term, corruption has become a thing of the past, bribes are now much frowned upon and the rule of law prevails. He is changing the face of Nigeria. The Western media love him, “Africa’s Kennedy” they call him. There is talk of a British Knighthood. Sir Lumumba, he chuckles at the suggestion. His efficient style of government has become something of a model that other African governments are urged to aspire to. During his election campaign Chavez expressed concern regarding the oil industry. He argued that natural resources primarily ought to deliver the greater benefit to the people of Nigeria. At present, foreign multi-national corporations dominate the industry; they pay a tax at year-end and share the rest among largely foreign shareholders. This nationalist theme concerned investors. Many had expected him to expropriate foreign owned companies and to impose onerous taxes on the oil industry. He did not. Instead, his first years in office were devoted to anti-corruption and improving public service efficiency. He has not proposed any significant structural changes to the economy, this to the delight of foreign investment. Business leaders, many of whom backed his opponent in the election, have now taken a liking to him, coining a slang term “chavismo” to mean a good deal. *Turning tides* Chavez announces an oil industry policy conference, inviting key stakeholders. The industry has been tense. Over the past weeks newspapers have intensified rumours about an imminent government takeover. There have always been rumours of “the final wave,” a raft of policies that would fulfil many of Chavez’s most radical promises as expressed during his campaign. Investors are not at ease, concerned as to government’s intentions. Chavez begins by pointing out the absurdity of oil companies exporting crude oil only for Nigeria to later import fuel at an inflated price. He rhetorically probes industry executives as to why they failed to develop local refineries over the past 45 years of operation. In addition, he explains that Nigeria has a fast growing middle class with an increasing appetite for fuel. Long queues have been forming at the fuel stations and this must stop. “Nigeria is a significant exporter of oil and it is shameful for our citizens to lack a resource that we have in such great abundance,” he asserts. “All crude oil must be refined in Nigeria and local demand must first be satisfied before any fuel is exported.” His ideas are well thought out and clearly articulated. The wisdom of his position is impossible to contradict. He asks the floor for contributions. There are no dissenting voices, the only sound to be heard is the distant chanting, “Lumbu, Lumbu, Lumbu . . .” as his people affectionately call him. The crowd in the city square is watching on giant screens recently installed by the local authority. The announcement delights the already frenzied crowd. They continue to chant, “Lumbu, Lumbu, Lumbu.” It’s an endless loop of celebration. Chavez is not finished. He moves to build a case against the current tax regime. Merely taxing multi-nationals does not allow Nigerian citizens to derive the full benefits of their resources. The oil companies are paying a tax on natural resources that should ordinarily be entirely owned by the citizen. He unveils proposals detailing how US$65 billion, secured from the Libyans, will be used to compensate oil companies for their capital investments. Government will now take full ownership of the oil industry. However, he points out that the services of the oil companies will still be required for their expertise. They will derive a 5 percent commission on oil revenue as remuneration for their continued operation. Chavez turns to the cameras, his words carefully chosen to answer the criticism he is sure will now follow. He expresses an “unwavering commitment” to property rights. This is why we have set aside US$65 billion for market value compensation, he says. This decision was the “inevitable conclusion to Africa’s protracted struggle for economic liberation”. He concludes with his signature campaign phrase, “What is a nation but its people? What are a people but their resources?” The week following, parliament unanimously votes the proposed reforms into law. A hesitant opposition quietly lends its co-operation. Chavez’s decision to nationalise the oil industry yet maintaining the efficiency benefits of profit-motivated management greatly increases government revenues. The oil companies are allowed to manage themselves without government interference. He hates bureaucracy and resists the temptation to micro-manage. In his opinion, politicians have no place in business. Chavez announces similar plans for the mining industry. He maintains that all natural resources belong to the people and that they must derive the greater benefit. Full compensation will be given for capital investments. The mining corporations will also derive a commission of five percent from mining revenue. This five percent is effectively a management contract. They too are given full latitude to manage their concerns free of government interference. Government revenues soar. Nigerians are surprised that foreign companies had been siphoning such vast amounts of wealth for the benefit of a select few. The economy runs smoothly, Chavez, being an economist, strikes an effective balance between the efficiency benefits of capitalism and his socialist convictions. He steers clear of banking, manufacturing, telecoms and other industries that do not profit from natural resources. In his opinion they bring jobs and ought to be encouraged, he slashes taxes for most such industries. The country prospers. March 23, 2032. Nigeria is at the centre of global headlines. Sir Mark Thatcher has been seized in Liberia by Nigerian security operatives. He is accused of funding the militant group Boko Haram and attempting to overthrow the government of Lumumba Chavez. There are conflicting reports. The BBC reports that Sir Mark Thatcher was on holiday and has been abducted by unknown gunmen. The US State Department “condemns the kidnapping” of Sir Mark and threatens unspecified retaliation. Chavez vows that Thatcher must and will face the full force of Nigerian law arguing that his “extraction” from Liberia was legal. Sir Mark is indeed convicted of espionage and conspiracy to overthrow a lawfully elected government. He is sentenced to 20 years in prison. Repeated calls by the British government for his release are ignored. The next three years see a swift change in media tone. Sanctions are imposed and the economy takes a hit. The once agreeable opposition turns and calls for Chavez to step down. Demonstrations are not uncommon. Chavez cracks down. He is accused of human rights abuses. The economy slides into more trouble. Shortages are commonplace. The British public anger ferments following Sir Mark’s death in custody at Kirikiri, a notorious prison. The situation is worsened by Nigeria’s refusal to repartriate his body, insisting on giving him a pauper’s burial. Human Rights organisations begin to demand that action be taken to help the vulnerable people of Nigeria. In September 2036, a demonstration against shortages of basic commodities ends in the death of an 18-year-girl. The police deny shooting her. It’s the final straw. A Western coalition declares a joint military operation against a “brutal dictatorship killing its own people.” Chavez escapes to Libya just before British forces overrun the capital. The International Criminal Court issues a warrant for his arrest for human rights violations. A provisional government is set up and the prominent human rights campaigner, Tsvangirai Mobutu, takes office. He quickly reverses Chavez’s reforms, accusing him of having been a communist bent on destroying the economy. We must encourage foreign investment, he says. The sanctions are lifted. Mobutu postpones elections for the next 10 years in the “interest of public safety”. The provisional government must stand until such a time as stability is restored and the environment is conducive for democratic elections. Mobutu purges political opponents and closes down pro-Chavez newspapers. This often goes unreported. Just recently, a university demonstration was violently dispersed and 14 students killed. The government spokesman assures the media that those who were shot were not students but “terrorist elements” engaged in subversive activities. Poverty gradually returns to Nigeria, Mobutu remains in power and the oil keeps flowing. Ndatenda. Ndini muchembere wenyu, Amai Jukwa.
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