http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/foreign/21-Feb-2016/what-if-the-uncharted-waters-of-brexit
If there is any country more stupid than the U.S., it is Britain!
See the last paragraph.
A British exit from the European Union would leave the country in
uncharted territory, no country having ever travelled that road, which
spells freedom to eurosceptics but doom to the pro-Europe camp.
As Britain gears up for a membership referendum, European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker insists there is no plan B, while Downing
Street maintains it has made no contingencies.
After securing a deal on Britains special status in the EU at a summit on
Friday, Prime Minister David Cameron said he would campaign for his
country to stay in and warned those clamouring for a divorce that a
post-EU future might be far from rosy.
We should be suspicious of those who claim that leaving Europe is some
automatic fast track to some land of milk and honey, Cameron said, adding
that Brexit would be a leap into the unknown.
A War Game held in London last month attempted to simulate post-Brexit
negotiations on Britains place in Europe, but even there discussions
quickly turned toxic.
As a first step, Britain and the EU must negotiate and conclude an
agreement... setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, as required
by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. If no agreement is reached after two
years, Britain would automatically be ejected from the union, unless both
parties agreed to an extension.
At the heart of discussions will be whether Britain remains in the
European Economic Area (EEA), like other non-EU members Norway and
Iceland, or whether it quits the single market altogether.
The City of London, Europes most important financial centre, is hostile to
a Brexit and its big hitters have already planned for various post-EU
scenarios.
HSBC, Europes biggest bank, has warned that 1,000 jobs could shift from
London to Paris.
According to a study by the think-tank Open Europe, Britains GDP would be
2.2 points lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU, in its worst-case
scenario, with a loss of 0.8 percent deemed most likely.
Despite Brexits many unknowns, the government would likely clamp down on
immigrants, starting with migrants from Eastern Europe, whom eurosceptics
believe are being lured by Britains welfare system. Parliament would be
able to strike down EU laws written into British law, which currently
state that the welfare system must treat workers from other parts of
Europe as it does British citizens.
France would have to decide whether to continue to host British border
police, or whether it would lift the controls to allow migrants currently
stranded in Calais to travel on to England through the Eurotunnel.
Meanwhile, EU citizens already resident in Britain could suddenly find
themselves treated as any other foreigner, requiring residence and work
permits.
Remaining EU members could respond in kind, leaving Britons on the
continent in need of visas and permits. In the key areas of security and
defence, it seems likely that all parties would conclude the need to
continue cooperating closely on defence and counter-terrorism.
But a Brexit could leave Britain weakened on the world stage as it loses
its role as a gateway to Europe for the United States and China.
Both US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have
publicly called for Britain to stay in the EU.
Britain could be further weakened by the prospect of losing Scotland,
whose devolved government has signalled it would demand another
independence referendum in the event of a Brexit.
The ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) claims that it is being forced
out of the EU against its wishes, and believes it would have a stronger
chance of winning independence than it did in 2014, when Scotland voted by
55 percent to 45 percent to remain in the United Kingdom. The consequences
would be dire for Prime Minster David Cameron, who would go down in
history as the man who empowered the countrys eurosceptics to drive
Britain out of the EU.
Political commentators are already fantasising about charismatic London
mayor Boris Johnson, a die-hard eurosceptic, replacing Cameron should the
vote go against the current prime minister.
Another issue that carries weight, literally, among Britains eurosceptics
will also be settled.
The 2009 European regulation imposing the use of the metric system will
finally be able to be binned, signalling a return to imperial measurements
and victory for metric martyr campaigners.
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