OK, thanks for the article, and a good read. A few points though: 1. This is one doctor's opinion. There are other doctors who don't think we'll reach herd immunity until the summer. I provided a link with such information. 2. He's providing nation wide statistics. For example, here in Texas, we're behind the curve when it comes to vaccinations, so our herd immunity will come after other parts of the country reach herd immunity. 3. I don't see anywhere in this article where the author says people should stop wearing masks in April. Opening up the economy in April isn't the same thing as telling people they can stop wearing masks. 4. this article also states that the COVID-19 virus will be with us for decades and there will continue to be mutations. He doesn't use these words, but vaccines will continue to be playing catch up for a while. 5. I don't see anything in this article that says there won't be some people who will still be wearing masks for some time to come and this feature in IOS will be welcomed by those people. Not everyone needs to use every feature in their iPhone for it to be a useful feature.
-- Christopher (AKA CJ) Chaltain at Outlook -----Original Message----- From: viphone@googlegroups.com <viphone@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Kelly Pierce Sent: Friday, March 12, 2021 10:51 PM To: viphone@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Masks & Face ID THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news. By Marty Makary Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted? In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity. Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March. There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life. ________________________________________ Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies. Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells. Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection. In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling. I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild. But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in. My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity. Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains. Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants. Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices. Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.” We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Continue reading your article with a WSJ membership. VIEW OPTIONS By Marty Makary Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET SHARE TEXT 1,991 ILLUSTRATION: MARTIN KOZLOWSKI Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted? In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity. OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH Biden's Pushback on Student Loans SUBSCRIBE Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March. There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life. NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP Opinion: Morning Editorial Report All the day's Opinion headlines. PREVIEW SUBSCRIBE WSJ NEWSLETTER Notes on the News The news of the week in context, with Tyler Blint-Welsh. Enter your email SIGN UP Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies. Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells. Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection. In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling. I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild. But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in. My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity. Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains. Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants. Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices. Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.” On 3/12/21, Christopher Chaltain <chalt...@outlook.com> wrote: > This isn't true. Do you have a link to this source? Here's one site of > many that says we should be wearing masks at least into the summer > https://parade.com/1141266/ericasweeney/how-long-will-we-have-to-wear- > masks/ Plus, since the COVID-19 virus isn't going away, and will > continue to mutate, and since no vaccine is 100% affective, there will > be some people who will continue to wear masks for years if not > forever in some situations. > A feature like what Apple is providing will be beneficial to some even > if others don't take advantage of it. > > -- > Christopher (AKA CJ) > Chaltain at Outlook > > -----Original Message----- > From: viphone@googlegroups.com <viphone@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of > Kelly Pierce > Sent: Friday, March 12, 2021 9:38 PM > To: viphone@googlegroups.com > Subject: Re: Masks & Face ID > > A doctor from Jons Hopkins says that Covid will be mostly gone by > April so the necessity to wear face masks will be ending soon. > > Kelly > > > > On 3/12/21, Maria Reyes <sassyblindg...@gmail.com> wrote: >> yeah it'll be interesting to see how that new feature works. >> >> want to talk about all aspects of blindness? Join the blind chatroom >> list by sending an email to blind-chatroom-requ...@freelists.org with >> subscribe in the subject >> >>> On Mar 11, 2021, at 10:07 PM, Wendy Lin <wendy9...@hotmail.com> wrote: >>> >>> Hi All, >>> >>> Well based on the Youtube videos I’ve watched from Apple Insider and >>> 9to5 Mac, the Face ID feature with the masks will only work to >>> unlock your phone if you have an Apple Watch. >>> >>> Wendy >>> >>>> On Mar 11, 2021, at 4:54 PM, Simon A Fogarty <si...@blinky-net.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>> Hi Richard, >>>> >>>> IOS 14 also allows you to have an alternate face in your face id >>>> settings, >>>> >>>> So in a way you can have both faces in there. >>>> >>>> If you have two faces that is. >>>> >>>> >>>> From: viphone@googlegroups.com <viphone@googlegroups.com> On Behalf >>>> Of Richard Turner >>>> Sent: Friday, 12 March 2021 4:46 am >>>> To: viphone@googlegroups.com >>>> Subject: RE: Masks & Face ID >>>> >>>> You can only have one face, but apparently it looks like iOS 14.5 >>>> will allow for masks during face ID. Not sure how that will work, >>>> but those who have a phone with face ID can find out once 14.5 is >>>> released. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Richard >>>> >>>> Ralph's Observation: It is a mistake to allow any mechanical >>>> object<>to realize that you are in a hurry. >>>> >>>> >>>> My web site, www.turner42.com >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> From: viphone@googlegroups.com<viphone@googlegroups.com> On Behalf >>>> Of sherrywells1...@gmail.com >>>> Sent: Thursday, March 11, 2021 7:44 AM >>>> To: 'VIPhone' <viphone@googlegroups.com> >>>> Subject: Masks & Face ID >>>> >>>> I have an IPhone 8 so still use touch id. When you set that up you >>>> can set it up for more than one finger. With face id, can you set >>>> it up with more than one face? If so, you could have both masked & >>>> unmasked faces for use in unlocking the phone. I’m guessing this >>>> isn’t possible or one of you would have done it. I’m just curious >>>> though since it would make sense to allow more than one face just >>>> as it does to allow more than one finger. >>>> >>>> Sherry Wells >>>> -- >>>> The following information is important for all members of the V >>>> iPhone list. >>>> >>>> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this >>>> list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please >>>> contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on >>>> the list itself. >>>> >>>> Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: >>>> mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara >>>> at caraqu...@caraquinn.com >>>> >>>> The archives for this list can be searched at: >>>> http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ >>>> --- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "VIPhone" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>> send an email toviphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/020b01d7168d%244e8926d0%24eb9b7470%24%40gmail.com. >>>> -- >>>> The following information is important for all members of the V >>>> iPhone list. >>>> >>>> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this >>>> list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please >>>> contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on >>>> the list itself. >>>> >>>> Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: >>>> mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara >>>> at caraqu...@caraquinn.com >>>> >>>> The archives for this list can be searched at: >>>> http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ >>>> --- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "VIPhone" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>> send an email toviphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/MW4PR17MB4513E9ABB43722E5B628D372B7909%40MW4PR17MB4513.namprd17.prod.outlook.com. >>>> >>>> -- >>>> The following information is important for all members of the V >>>> iPhone list. >>>> >>>> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this >>>> list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please >>>> contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on >>>> the list itself. >>>> >>>> Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: >>>> mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara >>>> at caraqu...@caraquinn.com >>>> >>>> The archives for this list can be searched at: >>>> http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ >>>> --- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "VIPhone" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>> send an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/SYAPR01MB2319AF312B8AEADB268C68F58A909%40SYAPR01MB2319.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com. >>> >>> -- >>> The following information is important for all members of the V >>> iPhone list. >>> >>> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this >>> list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please >>> contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the >>> list itself. >>> >>> Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: >>> mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara >>> at caraqu...@caraquinn.com >>> >>> The archives for this list can be searched at: >>> http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ >>> --- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "VIPhone" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>> send an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/DM6PR07MB688988AA207BCF170D603BCCA36F9%40DM6PR07MB6889.namprd07.prod.outlook.com. >> >> -- >> The following information is important for all members of the V >> iPhone list. >> >> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, >> or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact >> the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. >> >> Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: >> mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara >> at caraqu...@caraquinn.com >> >> The archives for this list can be searched at: >> http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ >> --- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "VIPhone" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >> send an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/E2757F32-B44D-4A76-A94D-291125100D77%40gmail.com. >> > > -- > The following information is important for all members of the V iPhone > list. > > If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, > or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact > the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > > Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: > mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara at > caraqu...@caraquinn.com > > The archives for this list can be searched at: > http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "VIPhone" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/CAOQRLb88y_%2BUzbRsg9YAOkMfjKzrnfYRM_UkZ98n_8N7T%3DZG5Q%40mail.gmail.com. > > -- > The following information is important for all members of the V iPhone > list. > > If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, > or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact > the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > > Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: > mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara at > caraqu...@caraquinn.com > > The archives for this list can be searched at: > http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "VIPhone" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/PH0PR14MB4296FBE22EBDC5DA8E18795AC86E9%40PH0PR14MB4296.namprd14.prod.outlook.com. > -- The following information is important for all members of the V iPhone list. If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara at caraqu...@caraquinn.com The archives for this list can be searched at: http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "VIPhone" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/CAOQRLb-2um5YPAhvykr_UXhsJUzN1Uyu-g51N_RmLWUPNL1A5A%40mail.gmail.com. -- The following information is important for all members of the V iPhone list. If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. Your V iPhone list moderator is Mark Taylor. Mark can be reached at: mk...@ucla.edu. Your list owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara at caraqu...@caraquinn.com The archives for this list can be searched at: http://www.mail-archive.com/viphone@googlegroups.com/ --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "VIPhone" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to viphone+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/viphone/PH0PR14MB4296AF30357CE8990573D3AFC86E9%40PH0PR14MB4296.namprd14.prod.outlook.com.
