Jed wrote: Harry Veeder wrote:
Toast? no I don't think so. The Russians slapped Amercians in the face by putting a satellite and a man in orbit first. JR: Good point. MC: Taking a global view, it doesn't matter who commercializes CF or BLP first. In 20 years it won't matter. If China were to be that nation, it would take the pressure off the oil supply for the rest of the world. Once deployed, the fact cannot be hidden, any more than the first use of an A bomb. The only real "secret" was that it could be done, and after that it was only a matter of time and will that others did so also, as we know. As Jed pointed out Sputnik and the world's reaction gave von Braun the license to put together pieces he had prepared and did likewise, and then spurred the US to do what nobody else has done yet, land men on the moon and bring them home. Commercialization of CF or BLP by China or Japan will spur the US into drastic action. The race then will not be uneven, for both China and Japan have the technical resources and incentive to pursue the technology. Both are oil-poor, as is the US, in comparison to our need. Weeping and wailing over the export of US technical skill is short sighted. A century ago, if you were a "real" chemist, you studied in Germany. The US has not been self sufficient in resources since the mid-30s. Some here have lamented the shipment of US cement and steel to China support thier current boom -- it's exports, guys, and we get paid -- remember that US hunger for raw materials from the developing world is seen by some in those countries as selling their future and birthright to buy toys for the thugs that run the country. The manufacturing expertise using statistical quality control that was developed in the US during WW2 was ignored in satisfying the consumer hunger after the war. Deming took that knowledge to Japan and they showed what efficient manufacturing trechnology could do -- eventually shaking the US automobile industry out of its lethargy. That knowledge is now widely understood, even used in the US now. Mike Carrell
