How much money could a residential customer save with a cold fusion generator? Assume it is a cogenerator (CHP) that also provides all space heating. Here are the average annual costs US customers pay for electricity and space heating:
Electricity $1,369 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table5_a.pdf Space heating $578 to $1,437 "Average household expenditures for homes heating primarily with natural gas will total $578 this winter, a $64 decline from last winter's average. Homes primarily using propane are expected to spend $1,437 . . ." http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=23232 Suppose the customer also uses mainly an electric car which is recharged with the cold fusion generator. Add to that: Gasoline, replaced by using an electric car $1,962 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table5_a.pdf The total ranges from $1,947 to $4,768 per year, or $162 to $396 per month. Assume that a generator lasts for 15 years, and that maintenance costs would be negligible. Over the 15-year life of the generator, savings range from $29,205 to $71,295. This gives you a sense of how much a cold fusion generator would have to cost before it begins to pay for itself. Of course first-generation cold fusion generators are likely to cost much more than $71,000. They will be used for critical applications in the military, and by the sort of wealthy people who buy Tesla automobiles today. It will cost billions of dollars to develop these things and begin manufacturing them, so it will take a while for the prices to fall to commodity levels reasonably close to the cost of materials and manufacturing. (That is, a price roughly similar to today's standby generator.) As I wrote before -- After the technology matures, I expect cold fusion generators will cost roughly as much as today's standby generator. In other words, a cold fusion cell and steam turbine will cost about as much as the gas powered motor in a standby generator. . . . You can see the range of power and the costs of today's standby generators here: http://www.lowes.com/Electrical/Generators/Home-Standby-Generators/_/N-1z0x2n8/pl# ! The prices range from $2,000 up to $5,500 for a 20 kW unit. As I described in my book, you do not need as much electric power capacity as we use today, because many applications will use cold fusion heat directly. I think the average house will not need more than 20 kW. However, the generators shown at Lowe's are standby generators, not standalone continuous duty ones. I have not been able to find a source of standalone generators for remote locations. I expect they are much more expensive than standby generators, mainly because there is not much of a market for them, but also because they have to be more robust. I am going to guess that a standalone units will cost perhaps $2,000 more than today's standby generator. So that's ~$7,500. Here is some information on today's remote site generators. I do not see any prices quoted. http://www.anu-co.com/remotesite.html http://www.redhawkenergy.net/pdf/Brochures/Solar%20Power%20Systems-RR-Web.pdf I am guessing that cold fusion generators will start selling like hotcakes when the generators can offset roughly half of the cost of your electric bill and gas bill combined. I expect that cold fusion will lower the cost of conventional electric power, and it might also lower the cost of natural gas. But not by much. The fuel cost component of electric power is only about one-third of the total. If you stay with your electric power company, you may might pay ~$19,000 to $47,000 (two-thirds of what you pay today). To summarize, in locations with expensive electricity or natural gas, generators will begin selling rapidly when the price of a generator approaches $23,000. In places with cheap conventional energy costs, sales will pick up as the price falls to $10,000. As to when an individual residential customer changes over to cold fusion, I predict this will happen when the heating and air conditioning equipment wears out and must be replaced. An HVAC company salesman will say something like this: "You can replace your old gas heater here for $2000. Or, you can lease purchase a cold fusion generator from us for $100 a month. After 10 years it is yours to keep -- no more payments. This will eliminate your electric bill and most of your gas heating bill. Plus, if you buy a Leaf electric car it will save you another $2,000 a year in gasoline." (I am assuming that Leaf electric cars will be cheaper than first generation cold fusion cars.) Ultimately, I expect that thermoelectric generators will replace steam turbines and other generators that have moving parts. Here is a remote site thermoelectric generator. I have no idea how much it costs. It is compact and it lasts for a long time (20 years) with low maintenance. http://www.genthermglobalpower.com/products/global-gpt-tegs - Jed
