----- Original Message -----
From: "Jed Rothwell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <vortex-L@eskimo.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 01, 2006 4:08 PM
Subject: RE: Are Big Oil Conspiracies Really Off-Base?
John Steck wrote:
$36.13 billion total profit for 2005, highest of all time.... second
highest of all time? Exxon again with $25.3 billion in 2004.
Kenneth Deffeyes pointed out that part of the reason oil companies are
making record profits is because they are not investing in new refineries,
tankers and other capital equipment. They are not investing because they
know there is no more oil in the ground, so there is no point to expanding
production capacity. In fact, in 20 years they will not even need present
capacity. In other words, they are dismantling their own industry by
attrition. Why build a new sawmill when you are on the verge of cutting
down the last tree?
Good point Jed. Probably one of the most obvious signs that peak oil is
near, when the oil industry stops investing in expanded infrastructure and
does not increase exploration dramatically in the face of a much higher
price environment for their product. Why not? Because they probably know
better than anyone that there is no future for oil. It could unravel even
faster than many expect, because once oil reaches a certain price threshold,
it will price itself right out of the marketplace and alternatives will fill
the void.
It's a good idea to read between the lines of all the conflicting stories
surrounding peak oil and look at underlying indicators, such as rising oil
prices (no better indication of the scarcity of a commodity than the price
people are willing to pay for it), and as you pointed out the lack of
investment in new and expanded infrastructure to process oil, it tells you
something about what they are thinking.
