Horace Heffner writes: >Deffeyes writes: "An algebraic result from the Hubbert theory says >that the production rate peaks when half of the oil has been >produced." This means he's off. Field production declines faster >than the ramp up.
That's true for individual wells, but other factors usually cause the long-term, industry-wide decline to mimic the rise. Two examples of these factors: 1. The technology improves, old wells are reopened and more is extracted from present wells. 2. The price rises, demand falls, and consumption spreads out over a longer period than it would if the only constraint were the extraction technology. Deffeyes illustrates these trends with examples such as coal extraction in Pennsylvania, which had a bell-shaped curve. Of course the curve is not exactly smooth. The coal curve, for example, shows an anomalous upturn during WWII. - Jed
