Note that one of the NYT projections also shows April as the date herd immunity begins. Look at the graph with three choices labeled "CHOSE A SCENARIO." Select the third choice:
Huge supply increase 5 million shots per day The text changes to: It’s a stretch, but if the pace increases to 5 million shots per day, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by April. In that time, 80,000 people could die from the virus. I think 5 million shots per day might be possible, especially if the J&J single-dose vaccine becomes available and if J&J does have production problems. I read they have some problems now. Let us hope the problems can be fixed quickly.