In reply to Terry Blanton's message of Wed, 26 Jul 2006 21:32:07 -0400: Hi, [snip] >If we maintain a mean consumption of 10^8 barrels per day (it's around >88 mbpd now), 10^12 will last 10^4 days, or totally deplete in 2033. >We will be bankrupt and dead long before that. Idiots. [snip] If you start at the current usage and calculate in an annual growth rate of 2%, it will only last till 2030.
World population growth rate is currently about 1.14% (and has been dropping, see http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=24), but industrial development means that fuel consumption grows faster than the population. Even at 1.14% it would only last until 2033. Nevertheless, the 1E12 bbl estimate apparently doesn't include the shale oil in the US, which should roughly double the total reserves (See http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/shale/shale.asp). Taking this into account and still assuming a growth rate of only 1.14%, we have till 2053. At 2% it would last till 2046. BTW none of the above takes into account that rising prices will suppress demand. For a very interesting read see also http://www.greatchange.org/ov-simmons,club_of_rome_revisted.html Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://users.bigpond.net.au/rvanspaa/ Competition provides the motivation, Cooperation provides the means.
