In reply to Stephen A. Lawrence's message of Fri, 25 Apr 2008 09:27:59 -0400: Hi, [snip] >The whole point of the exercise is that we seem to have reached the >world peak in oil production, and supply cannot be increased, due to >lack of resources. [snip] I think a better definition of the "oil peak" is that it is the peak that would occur if left to economic forces. It doesn't necessarily mean that production can't be increased in the short term at the cost of the long term. Since there is still oil in the ground, it can be extracted more rapidly if we have the will to do so, but then it will simply run out sooner.
What will happen fairly soon, is sharp reduction in new exploration wells, as oil companies finally get it through their heads that the number of new discoveries is so low that it isn't worth the cost of drilling hundreds of dry wells just to find one producing well. IOW rather than a divergent supply and demand curve, you will see a rising production curve that matches demand, then suddenly goes over a cliff, and drops to zero. By analogy, look at world fish stocks. In fact I think that rising prices will probably bring this about. IOW supply will continue to meet demand, until such time as the supply suddenly ceases altogether. Of course long before then it will have become so expensive that demand will have been reduced, partially due to millions of people having died of hunger. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk The shrub is a plant.
