On Oct 7, 2008, at 1:50 PM, Stephen A. Lawrence wrote:
Here's a model developed back around 1980, which was back-tested
against
every Presidential election back to 1860, and which has correctly
predicted every election since it was developed (that's six out of six
predictions made in advance and born out):
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/Keys_forecast_aug_2007_apsa_by_lichtman.pdf
or here it is made "tiny" (but note that this is a PDF file):
http://tinyurl.com/45zk8e
Apparently, since some time last summer (since before Hillary dropped
out, in fact), it's been predicting a Democratic win this time around.
Note, though, that this predicts the *popular* vote, not the electoral
college vote. So, for instance, it predicted a Gore win, which was a
"correct" prediction if we just look at the popular vote.
The "model" consists of 13 assertions; if at least 7 are true, the
incumbent party will be re-elected. Interestingly, it is based almost
entirely on actions taken by the incumbent government, with one (1)
question devoted to the personality of the challenger. What's more,
it
takes account of no opinion poll results, and no takes account of *no*
actions taken by the opposition! And, no, it's not a hack, or a joke;
as far as I can tell it's completely serious, and its track record is
very surprising.
Here's an excerpt from the paper, in case anyone has trouble with the
PDF: Here are the assertions (the model consists of the assertions,
plus
some clearer definitions). Again, the prediction is that, if at
least 7
are true, the incumbent party will be reelected; otherwise the
opposition will win:
=========================================
[begin quote]
Well, let's play a game. Here are my answers. I get 2 assertions that
are true. Looks like the Republicans are going down big-time.
Ed
The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent
party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party
wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent
party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it
did after the previous midterm elections.
No, the incumbent party lost seats.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party
nomination.
No, there was a serious contest
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting
president.
No
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or
independent campaign.
Yes, there is no serious challenge.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the
election campaign.
No, the economy is in recession
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the
term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
No, the real growth is less.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major
changes in national policy.
Yes, very major changes are effected.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the
term.
No, there is unrest.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major
scandal.
No, the incumbent has lots of scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration
suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
No, there have been major failures.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration
achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
No, no major success has been achieved.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is
charismatic or a national hero.
Mixed, a national hero, yes; charismatic, no
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not
charismatic or a national hero.
Mixed, charismatic, yes; a national hero, no
