On Dec 30, 2008, at 3:13 PM, Jones Beene wrote:
At casinos, over 999 out of 1000 regular players are net losers.
That is no secret. And it is of almost no deterrence to the losers.
Those odds are not fixed, but vary with time gambling. Except for
games of skill, like poker between real people, there is typically a
loss expectancy with each bet, else casinos would not be in business.
The probability of going *totally broke* (not just losing) in games
of chance with house favored odds increases toward certainty with
increased betting time. If you have a 100 bet purse, then at 99 bets
you have a 100 percent probability of still being alive, having some
of your purse left. At a 10 percent house take, this number
diminishes very slowly at first, to 98 percent at bet 500, 84 percent
at bet 700, 57 percent at bet 900. But then it falls off a cliff,
reaching 1.22 percent at bet 1900, 1.87 in 1000 at bet 2300, 0.37 in
1,000,000 at 4000, and 2.246 chances in a BILLION of being alive at
bet 5000, i.e. after 50 hours of play. It is easy to see, at a 100
bets/hour, why the gambler with a 100 bet purse of $500, bet at the
typical minimum house bet of $5, can lose his purse in a vacation of
3 days or less. For a more complete discussion see:
http://mtaonline.net/~hheffner/Gambling.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/7arsxo
But beating the odds is NOT about long trials and Excel
spreadsheets- it is about knowing your "own" special timing, and
about recognizing trends, anticipating trends, and NOT making
careless errors; but most of all - it is about self-denial -
walking away the rest of the time.
It's about walking away permanently.
There is a lesson in there somewhere for alternative energy
advocates, but it is hard to verbalize...
Jones
I think the lesson is to gamble where the *expectancy* is in your
favor, not necessarily the odds. I think CF research fills that bill
nicely, because the potential benefit of success to mankind is
infinite for all practical purposes. Because the odds of individual
success are low, many sacrificing individuals are left empty handed
except for the experience, but for humanity, the effort is highly
worthwhile. It is a more than fair lottery. For some background on
"expectancy" see:
http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/
http://tinyurl.com/2rekd9
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
