Terry I agree with your point about "breakthroughs", but let me correct the disinformation.
There is a so-called "rule of seventy" that provides an easy way to measure the doubling period for a compounded rate. If there was a 7% rate of return, then the principal would double every ten years. However, that is not applicable to the situation with renewables where even if the present total contribution were to double in ten years, the net effect would amount to only about 27% of the total. However, due to the large jump in solar output capacity coming online this year, the rate itself will go up substantially. However, average per capita consumption will start to go up again, sometime in the futre If the economy improves in 2010, we will probably need all of the technological breakthroughs we have available to keep oil in check. BTW - the biggest name in hydrogen from bacteria - Melis energy - may have gone under. I can't find their web page at least. Maybe one of their super-bugs got to it ;-) > Statistically when you forecast out the 7.7% year-to-year gains in renewables, it only takes 10 years to totally eliminate fossil fuels, but of course that will not happen. And all that with no major breakthroughs. All it takes is one like EEStor or Ben Bova's "The Green Trap" cyanobacteria genetically engineered to crack more water than they need for hydrogen. Terry
