Looking at the news commentary and Sunday Morning talk shows in Japan,
it is stunning how sharply public opinion has turned against nuclear
power. The government is struggling to persuade local politicians and
community groups to allow some of the ~50 shuttered reactors to reopen.
Small town mayors have been given a veto over national energy policy.
They are being treated like royalty in the national media and by the
government. Power concentrated in the hands of low-level leaders is not
unusual in Japanese politics and history. It is often said that the
1930s war in China was instigated by low-level firebrand officers. Adm.
Yamamoto was effectively in charge of naval operations in 1941 and '42.
Even after the defeat at Midway, which was entirely his fault, he could
overrule over his nominal superiors in the General Staff in Tokyo by
threatening to resign.
People often say that Japanese politics and public opinion are stuck in
a rut and unchanging. Because, for example, the LDP was in charge for
decades, and recent PMs seem hapless. That isn't true. They can change
overnight when the need arises. That should be clear from Japanese
modern history, which includes sweeping changes during Meiji and again
after WWII. See Cohen, "Remaking Japan."
This tells me that if cold fusion emerges and it becomes generally known
that it is real, there is likely to be strong support for it in Japan.
The Japanese population is well educated. I am confident that many
people there will understand the technical issues and the advantages of
cold fusion.
Their reputation for being well educated is somewhat exaggerated in my
experience, based on the mass media and the many stupid comments in
blogs devoted to cold fusion. People everywhere tend to be incurious,
and to know only what they need to know. Education in Japan is rigorous
but not all that advanced or challenging. In my opinion, it emphasizes
memorization too much, and things like writing a coherent essay not
enough. Many students at elite Japanese universities take a 4-year
vacation, whereas they bust their butts at good U.S. universities, so
the two groups come out about the same. Still, I expect a larger percent
of the people there will understand the advantages of cold fusion than
in the U.S. I expect less opposition.
- Jed
