There is still tremendous controversy in Japan about whether to re-open any of the nuclear power plants. This summer, they are projecting a 20% power shortage in the Osaka area, and 10 to 15% shortages elsewhere. Last year they managed to cut consumption by 10% to 15% in some cities, but 20% seems unreasonable to me. It would cause severe economic dislocations and some deaths from elderly people.
They are already stretched. Factories are doing emergency relocation of production to other parts of the country. Production lines are running at night and on weekends, and shutting down at peak hours. Commuting by electric trains and work hours have been staggered, although for some strange reason they refuse to implement daylight savings time. (They have discussed it.) It is difficult for parents with school-age children because the schools are on standard time. There is some talk of turning on the Osaka area reactors, which are located far from the city. The ones I have seen on the map are on the other side of Honshu. Some of the local people around the reactors are in favor of turning them on again, because they are losing jobs and population with the reactors off. Others are opposed. The mayor of Osaka, a popular young politician, is opposed. He thinks the city would be threatened by an accident. It would take an accident a lot worse than Fukushima to reach the city. It is complicated, but the overall message from the voters is clear: nuclear power is not acceptable. It must be abandoned completely now, or phased out quickly. I do not think any Japanese politician will stand against public opinion on this. It would be like an American politician saying: "we should put a tax of $3 per gallon on gasoline to pay for the wars in the Middle East." If I were them, I would turn on most of the nukes now, especially the newer ones. Then I would phase them out in 10 to 20 years. I hate to think of all the coal they are burning. Their fossil fuel consumption has gone through the roof. There is risk in that, too. - Jed
