Bullsh&t
On Thu, Aug 21, 2014 at 9:09 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote: > ChemE Stewart <cheme...@gmail.com> wrote: > > There are only "experts who understand what they are doing" >> >> I would have more confidence if they could get the weather right more >> often, which includes temperature and precipitation >> > > That is a completely separate discipline, based on different data and > principles. What you are demanding is very closely comparable to saying > that a life insurance actuarial department should be able to tell you > exactly how long you will live. Yes, both medicine and actuarial tables are > based on deep knowledge of physiology, disease, the effects of environment > and so on, but only a doctor can make a prediction for a specific person > (analogous to a weather report), and only an actuarial expert can predict > how long a group of people is likely to live on average (analogous to long > term global climate predictions). Actuarial experts do their job well > enough to keep life insurance companies highly profitable, so obviously > they know what they are doing, even though they could not do it for one > individual. > > - Jed > >
