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Malaysia's Opposition Faces Increasing Tension
Written by Our Correspondent
Wednesday, 04 February 2009
A charismatic leader faces sexual perversion charges and a state
coalition shows signs of coming apart.
Pakatan Rakyat, the unlikely opposition coalition that ended the
Malaysian national ruling coalition's 50-year grip on absolute power last
March, faces the apparent collapse of its majority in the northern state of
Perak and the possible tria, starting tomorrow, of its leader, Anwar Ibrahim,
on sexual perversion charges.
In addition to Anwars troubles, the Pakatan coalition appeared about to
be thrown out of power in Perak Wednesday after several state representatives
quit the coalition amid rumors of widespread offers of money to engineer
defections by the Barisan Nasional, the ruling national coalition, which almost
immediately said it would seek to form a government in the state. In the
tumultuous March 2008 election, Pakatan Rakyat won five state government
majorities and the federal territory of Kuala Lumpur. Loss of the Perak
government would be a major blow to the opposition.
In response, Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, the Perak chief minister, told
reporters he would consult with Sultan Aslan Shah in an attempt to block the
Barisan and dissolve the state assembly as a prelude to calling a snap
election. With the events that took place later in the day,it was unclear
whether he would have the forces left to remain in power.
Najib Tun Razak, the deputy prime minister, held a press conference
Wednesday evening to say that while the two opposing sides were tied 28-28 in
the state assembly, he expected others to defect, and that the Barisan Nasional
would seek to form a state government. The developments represent a singular
triumph for the Barisan, after two demoralizing losses in by-elections -- one
that brought Anwar to power, and a second loss in January in Kuala Terengganu.
The events started earlier this week, when two Perak state
representatives, Jamaluddin Mohd Radzi and Osman Jailu, both of PKR, resigned
from the coalition and Hee Yit Foong, a member of the Democratic Action Party,
quit Wednesday. At best, the departure of the three would leave the coalition
with a bare one-seat majority in the state assembly after 10 months in power in
the state. With the rumored departure of others, it was becoming increasingly
clear that the government was collapsing.
In addition, Anwar Ibrahim is due to go on trial on February 5, on
charges of having sodomized a 23-year-old former aide, Saiful Bukhari Azlan,
last July. It is the second such charge against Anwar, the first in 1998 after
Anwar broke with Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who sacked the then-deputy
prime minister and finance minister and expelled him from UMNO. Anwar's
subsequent sodomy conviction was later overturned after the current prime
minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, succeeded Mahathir, but not before Anwar had
served six years in prison. Anwar was also jailed on corruption charges brought
by Mahathir. Those charges were not overturned. Anwar and his followers have
complained that both sets of charges were trumped up to attempt to end his
once-promising political career.
Could the coalition recreate the victory in Perak? If they get the
chance, as with everything in Malaysia, the state's racial composition will
play a role. The state, once one of the world's richest tin-mining areas, has a
population of about 2 million, with ethnic Malays in a thin majority of about
54 percent. Another 32 percent are Chinese and 13 percent Indian, both of which
are likely to vote with the opposition parties.
Against this, there has been rising Malay irritation over what ethnic
Malays see as too many favors being bestowed on the Chinese. In particular,
Raja Nazrin Shah, the widely-respected crown prince, has spoken out against
what many see as Chinese usurpation of sensitive Malay rights.
However, the ruling Barisan Nasional, the ethnic coalition that has run the
country since its founding in 1959, faces at least as much trouble if not more.
Its leader, Najib, who is due to step in after United Malays National
Organization elections in March as prime minister, is unpopular among
rank-and-file Malays, partly because he is tied to Badawi, who is widely viewed
as having failed as prime minister, and partly because Najib has been at the
center of a series of procurement scandals as defence minister, a post he gave
up last year. There have also been repeated allegations that he was involved,
peripherally or otherwise, in the murder of an attractive Mongolian translator,
Altantuya Shaariibuu, in October 2006.
Two of Najib's bodyguards and his best friend were put on trial for the murder
in one of the longest court cases ever conducted in Malaysia. The friend, Abdul
Razak Baginda, who admittedly had been Altantuya's lover, was acquitted of
ordering the murder in a decision that drew considerable criticism. The two
bodyguards remain on trial. Shortly before the end of January, it was reported
that Musa Safri, Najib's chief of staff, had told the bodyguards to "do
something" about the 27-year-old woman, who by her own admission had been
blackmailing Abdul Razak. However, neither Musa nor Najib has been asked to
testify in the trial. In a procedural motion, the judge in the case refused to
allow Musa's cautioned statement to be introduced into court testimony. On
Wednesday, Siral Azhar Umar, one of the two bodyguards, broke down on the
witness stand as he read his final 15-page statement over the case, pleading
with the judge not to convict him as he was made a scapegoat to "cover up for
certain parties." He did not name the parties.
The government has also been handicapped by a flagging economy and rising
unemployment. The jobless rate is expected to double to 6 percent this year as
the country's export-led growth could fall as low as 1.5 percent from 5.5
percent in 2008. As late as November, officials were predicting growth of about
5 percent. Intel recently closed its East Malaysia factory and furloughed 5,000
workers. Panasonic and others have also announced plant closures. Tens of
thousands of foreign workers are expected to be sent packing although it is
questionable whether Malaysians themselves will take the jobs.
In an effort to prime the pump, the government is expected to introduce a RM7
billion spending package at some point in February after a previous RM7 package
in November, pushing up the government's budget surplus to as high as 7.4
percent of gross domestic product by 2010. Despite the rising deficit, the
country's large current account surplus and foreign reserves supply a
substantial cushion, however.
With UMNO split by factionalism as forces aligned with Najib and Badawi on one
side joust for party seats with forces aligned with former Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad, and party infighting on the increase, the government has been
criticized for being too slow to implement spending projects that would produce
jobs. There is also concern that the stimulus plan will be directed to UMNO
cronies in an effort to shore up Najib's intra-party support, rather than being
targeted to producing the biggest bang for the buck.
These issues are expected to play out in Perak, where the rich tin resource is
long gone, and the economic downturn is expected to bite. With the opposition
in control of the state and facing criticism for not doing enough to stimulate
the economy, that is balanced by lack of enthusiasm for the national ruling
coalition, which is regarded as ineffective as well.
In the meantime, Pakatan's three disparate parties - urban Malays vs.
fundamentalist Malays vs. Chinese chauvinists on one side, and warring factions
in UMNO plus the Malaysian Chinese Association, which was reduced to near
irrelevance in last year's election on the other, Perak's politics look to be
more than entertaining.
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