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Call of Islam fades for Indonesian voters By John Aglionby in Jakarta Published: April 6 2009 17:52 | Last updated: April 6 2009 17:52 Tens of thousands of supporters of the Prosperous Justice party (PKS), Indonesia's most orthodox Islamic political party, last Monday packed Jakarta's main sports stadium for one of the biggest rallies of the legislative election campaign. But the size of the gathering flattered to deceive, if opinions polls ahead of Thursday's vote and most analysts' predictions are correct. Not only is PKS losing momentum, but support in the world's most populous Muslim nation for all Islamic-based parties - which in the 2004 general election won 38.4 per cent of the vote - is expected to fall to as low as 20 per cent. Two years ago, PKS, which prides itself on its squeaky clean image and ability to mobilise committed supporters, believed it could triple its current 8 per cent representation in parliament, in itself a four-fold increase on its 1999 showing. But now its target is more modest. "We aim to get 10-14 per cent if there are no big blunders," said Zulkieflimansyah, the head of the parliamentary faction. Opinion polls suggest it will struggle to reach its lower estimate. Other Islamic parties face an even worse showing. The United Development party has 58 seats in the 550-member parliament, making it the third largest party. But it may win only half that number. The National Awakening party, once led by former president Abdurrahman Wahid, is divided. This slump is occurring in spite of a conspicuous rise in personal piety in Muslim society and "victories" for orthodox Islam. The latter includes the government's restrictions on Ahmadiyah, a Muslim sect from India that many Muslim groups in Indonesia regard as deviant, and the passing of an anti-pornography law that curtails women's rights and some cultural activities. There have been less restrictive developments. In 2006 a law was passed freeing Indonesians from the obligation to declare their religion on their identity card. In the past year the authorities have clamped down on Islamist groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front, imprisoning its leader for inciting violence. Amin Abdullah, the head of the State Islamic University in Yogyakarta, believes there is little correlation between politics and personal piety. "Politics is not ritual, it is public service, public governance," he said. "So the rise in popularity of ritual can't be linked with parties' popularity." Islamic parties' perceived reputation for purity has taken a double blow since 2004 during the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is polling strongly ahead of the July 8 presidential election. The former general has maintained a graft-free reputation and his performance has easily eclipsed his two predecessors, so his secular Democrat party is polling at more than 20 per cent, up from 7.5 per cent in 2004. Furthermore, five of the nine members or former members of parliament prosecuted for corruption in the past three years have come from Islamic parties. Zulkieflimansyah acknowledges that since religious ideology no longer wins votes, parties must adapt if they are to prosper. "We're educated enough to understand that Islam can't be used as a platform. Ideology is not sexy and platforms need more substance." This drift away from Islamisation of politics is shown in the falling number of regulations containing Islamist elements that regional administrations have introduced. According to data compiled by the National Commission On Violence Against Women, this peaked at 31 in 2003 but has averaged five since 2007. Secular parties are reaching out to devout Muslim voters more than in the past to try to win votes. The Democrat party has run advertisements targeting devout Muslims, while the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, led by Mr Yudhoyono's predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, formed an Islamic wing in 2007. Both parties still regard themselves as secular in their platforms. Moreover, the foreign policy of former US president George W Bush, widely seen as anti-Muslim in Indonesia, appears to have hurt the fortunes of the largely moderate Islamic parties. Robin Bush, a US expert on Islamic Indonesia, said: "There was so much mainstream Muslim anger at the US and at those policies that anyone who tried to talk about issues of compatibility and democratisation, pluralism or tolerance were labelled handmaidens of the west. [So] the international dimension emasculated support for an indigenous Muslim democracy movement that long pre-dated 9/11." The less confrontational policies of Barack Obama, US president, who spent four years of his childhood in Indonesia, appear to be reversing this trend, but too late to make much of a difference at the ballot box. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009 EDITOR'S CHOICE Indonesia poll's family ties - Aug-01 Bribery conviction raises pressure on Jakarta - Jul-30 Tactical change to draw Indonesia voters - Jul-13 Suharto's son faces $440m corruption lawsuit - May-05 Indonesia bank governor held in graft probe - Apr-10 Civil suit against Suharto family dismissed - Mar-27 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
