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Prior to the 1997 General Election I predicted that Labour would win with a
substantial majority. I was prevailed upon not to use the figure of 200 as
this could lead to my downfall as a forecaster; in the event the figure was
179. I based the prediction on my own anecdotal evidence and the Wirral
by-election result, which took place just before the big event, when there
was a 17.2% swing to Labour in the usually safe Tory seat on a 73% turnout.
This time round, the oleaginous Blair and his company of place seekers and
crawlers will repeat the performance in spades. The bookmakers going 1/40 for
a second term, and only a 1.2% swing needed for ten more seats, the Tories
needing 165 seats to win. The pundits calling it a vertical mountain to climb.
My opinions are strong, but justified. How can I feel otherwise about such a
bunch. Ex - CND`ers, now nuts about the arms race. Former National Council of
 Civil Liberties activists and National Union of Student leftists,
enthusiastic about locking up wrongdoers for longer and hunting down "bogus"
asylum seekers. A fake seaman's union radical. Ex-Trotskyites and Communist
Party fellow travellers sucking up to big business at home and abroad at the
expense of the underprivileged.
Such is our choice on June 7th rather than the Tories, this time led by
Dalek voiced Hague, something of the nightmare Widdecombe and slippery
Portillo. Replacing mediocre Major and the man with the brown envelopes.
These descriptions are lurid but apt, television not so inadvertently making
these characters more figures of fun than genuine political leaders.
This time the popular vote will almost certainly go down with a third (14.6
million) not voting. The popular vote in 1997 was             31.3 million,
on a  71% turn out. The predictions for this time round show a further
decline on that figure which itself was the lowest since 1979. In the US, the
home of alienation and where "greed is good", the recent polling figure for
President was 50% and it's the received wisdom that what they do across the
pond is repeated here 5 years later.
The parties call the problem one of apathy, but they duck the issue. For more
of  Thatcher`s children are coming on stream who have been brought up on a
diet of alienation, individuality, the National Lottery and gambling to make
money rather than working for it, house ownership rather than council renting
and the pursuit of pleasure rather than knowledge.
In this connection a horrifying story of Bangladeshi girls in the Borough of
Tower Hamlets, who get hooked on heroin and go into prostitution to fund it,
illustrates my argument. These young victims, from a background of a peasant
culture, where women are hardly acknowledged, have their families hiding
their problem instead of dealing with it through the social services, thus
making things worse.
They have become the modern version of the lumpen proletariat, who have no
connection with the political process. The cries of Blair and company that
this decline into "apathy" must be tackled head on, is all moonshine. How can
a culture developed over the last 22 years be cured in 4 weeks?
It is against this background that the debate on how to vote is raging in the
Morning Star and in these columns. The argument -  as I read it - is that
life is different now, that the anti capitalist "Reclaim the Streets"
movement is a sign that society needs a different, more radical view and that
the old ways are breaking down.
Having listed all these caveats and unfortunately for this "new" thinking,
Labour, although not a working class party is still the party of the working
class. And they command about 14 million votes at the polls, being the only
alternative -  and have been for the last 70 years - to the Tories when it
comes to government.
The latest tactical voting idea means either an anti-Tory or anti-Labour
vote, or for the third party, the Liberal-Democrats, who have no prospect of
government.  
The case of Ken Livingstone for the mayoralty of London is the by-election
scene, where government is not at stake, and where minority parties can
develop their support. The same unfortunately goes for Dennis Canavan and
Tommy Sheridan in Scotland.  The truth is, if their positions came up on
General Election day, it would go either Tory or Labour. The minority parties
get squeezed out in the big event and readers of history know it.
So, grind your teeth with frustration at the prospect, get dragged kicking
and screaming to the polling booth, but vote Labour (new or otherwise) when
you get there. You won't be wasting your vote and you'll also be with the big
battalions.
The strategy is as it always has been. That we thrust a poisoned chalice into
Labours lips, elect them to office and change their policy by action, at
extra-Parliamentary level until they adopt a progressive policy.
For the real struggle, the class one, although appearing to take new forms,
has not gone away.
For example, the African slave trade of the past has now been replaced by
cheap labour, "voluntarily" seeking work in the richer countries of Europe
and the US, that economy  being underpinned by 6 million illegal immigrants.
In Britain, apart from the alienation etc. there is poverty to be seen on the
streets, low wages in the sweat shops of the east end,  the call centres and
the junk food chains like McDonalds. The trade unions  sure to play a key
role in organising for higher wages and conditions in these places. Their
leadership being radicalised by this influx of new members.
That in turn impacting on Labour Party policies and personnel - as in the
seventies.  Once again showing that action outside Parliament is more
decisive than inside. Parliament and government  affected by outside events
and not the other way round.
To emphasise the point from someone who ought to know, Edward Heath (we
regularly ridiculed him in the 70`s demonstrations), in his farewell speech,
declared that the power of the House of Commons has been in decline for over
a century and is becoming increasingly impotent against government. Tony Benn
and the Communist Party has been saying the same thing for years.
So, forward to the hustings on June 7th. That date must be the start of a
struggle to pressurise this motley crew of political light-weights into
progressive policies.   
As they used to say in the AEU initiatory address for new members, "replacing
the system of poverty in the midst of plenty with a just and equitable one so
as to ensure a full and happy life for all those who render useful service in
society".



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