Hi Jeremy,
Thanks for the note back! I hope my frustrated peers haven't been too hard
on you :-). I've also cc'd the public WISPA mailing list so that folks see
what you've had to say.
I can tell you that my company (coverage map here: www.accima.com) is over
600 subs now. We compete against other WISPs, cable, DSL, FTTH or,
sometimes, all of the above, in all of our populated coverage areas.
Near as I can tell out here, there is a roughly 40 to 50% take rate across
all available technologies including Sat.
The small towns only have DSL in town, not around town so WISP or Sat.
coverage is the only option for those folks.
As for overall customer base, we don't really have a good way to tell.
Here's what I do know though:
Back in 2005 or 2006 WISPA contacted the main 5 or so vendors in the
industry. Distributors of hardware, not just manufacturers. It took some
doing, but we were finally able to browbeat them into giving us the number
of operators that they counted as WISPs. That total was 12,000. We then
assumed a 75% overlap (operators buying product from more than one vendor at
some point) and came up with 3000 WISPs in operation. The FCC has accepted
that number as a much more realistic estimate than their own Form 477's
data. At the time I think that the 477 showed around 400 WISPs.
Next WISPA called the main manufacturers that built hardware for the
industry. At the time that would have been Aperto, Trango, Alvarion,
Motorola and for WiFi, Smartbridges. Each was asked how many devices they
had sold into the US market in the last 48 months (conservative hardware
lifespan estimate). As I recall that totaled up to about 750,000 units, of
which 75,000 or 80,000 was smartBridges (WiFi) gear.
I'm VERY confident in the methodology used to determine those numbers. They
were, by design, quite conservative. You see, *I* am the one that made
those phone calls back in '05 or '06. It was important to NOT over estimate
the number of WISPs or our subscriber bases because no one would believe it.
Estimates at the time ranged as high as 10,000 WISPs in the USA alone.
After my data was released it was pointed out that the company with the
highest number of WISP operators was actually likely to be the real number
of WISPs as they could not really have any overlap. The most WISPs that a
company showed on the books was 6,000. Because of that I personally think
that there are between 3,000 and 5,000 active WISPs, at least at the time.
Here's where a bit of Kentucky windage comes in though. I was only able to
get CPE (customer premise equipment) sales figures from a few companies.
And I only got a SMALL sample of WiFi gear (didn't even try to get
Lucent/Agere/Orinico's numbers because they sold to everyone and wouldn't
always know who was a WISP). Yet WiFi based WISPs account for roughly 50%
of the market. At the time we used that as a basis for our claim that there
were 1,000,000 to 1,200,000 WISP customers in the USA.
At the time that informal study was done, I had under or just barely over
300 subs. Now we've easily doubled in size. Not just installed gear, but
current customers. My network is over 90% WiFi based, as are 4 of the 6
competitors around me in my Grant County area alone.
Today there may well be fewer WISPs (not many new startups going on from
what I can tell) out there, but I know of NO customer bases that aren't
still serviced. If a company goes away someone either takes over or buys
the customers.
Because of this, I happen to think that the estimate if 2M WISP subscribers
is very realistic. Probably on the low side. However, because so few WISPs
actually fill out the FCC Form 477 it's hard to set that number in stone or
to give a % of service estimate.
One thing that's surprising me is the rate of people that are dropping DSL
in favor of my wireless. It's still a small number but it's been ticking up
quickly in the last couple of months. I figured it would happen, just
didn't know when. We've already seen people NOT put phone service into
their new homes or rented apartments. So we're picking up those that will
only use a cell phone because we become so much cheaper for them. I just
got a call from a customer that's spending $400 per month on phones. Home
phone, fax line, cell phones etc. Guess what he's going to do? He's going
to buy a $25 VoIP line from me and drop his $40+ land line. AND he'll get
free long distance too! I'll now be billing him $65 per month instead of
$40 and he'll be saving money too.
I hope that this is helpful! Feel free to call me if you have any
questions. 509.988.0260 cell
Have a great Christmas!
Marlon K. Schafer
Founding Board Member - WISPA
Owner- Odessa Office Equipment
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kaplan, Jeremy" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Marlon K. Schafer" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, December 08, 2008 10:37 AM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] The fastest ISPs in America.. And only WildBlue was
mentioned as wireless???
You're right, it's something of an oversight. Next year we'll include WISPs
in the story. Incidentally, can you confirm the number of subscribers?
Someone at WISPA cited 2 million to me just now, which sounds off to my
ears, though I certainly don't have anything other than instinct to back
that up with. What percentage of the internet public uses WISPs?
Jeremy Kaplan
Executive Editor, PCMag.com
28 East 28th St., 11th Fl., New York, NY 10016
t:212.503.5284, e:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
-----Original Message-----
From: Marlon K. Schafer [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 9:35 AM
To: WISPA General List
Cc: Kaplan, Jeremy
Subject: Re: [WISPA] The fastest ISPs in America.. And only WildBlue was
mentioned as wireless???
Hi Jeremy,
I'm must curious as to why you left wireless broadband out of your article?
We have customers getting 10 meg SYMMETRIC services out here for a whopping
$35 per month. Nearly all of my customers are in the 2 to 3 meg range for
that same price. Again, speeds are usually pretty symmetric.
Perhaps you could write something about the WISP industry? The main trade
association for us is WISPA.
A few quick bits about this industry:
While only 500 or so filled out the last FCC Form 477 estimates from
multiple sources peg the number of WISPs in the USA at 2500 to 3000. Some
estimate twice that number but we agree with these.
There are over 1,000,000 WISP subscribers nation wide. Far more than are
the Form 477 shows.
WISPs often service remote or difficult customer bases. (I have a 6000+
square mile coverage zone in extremely rural eastern Washington areas.)
I'd be happy to answer any other questions you may have. I'm sure that
others on this list would as well.
thanks,
Marlon K. Schafer
owner
Odessa Office Equipment
509.988.0260
----- Original Message -----
From: "Drew Lentz" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org>
Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 7:55 PM
Subject: [WISPA] The fastest ISPs in America.. And only WildBlue was
mentioned as wireless???
I just ran across this article from PC Magazine about the fastest ISPs in
America and nowhere on there, other than WildBlue, does it mention wireless!
That sucks!
Here¹s the article:
http://www.pcmag.com/print_article2/0,1217,a%253D234501,00.asp
-drew
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