Little will change over the next few years for public websites & applications, such as amazon.com, those websites and web-apps need to run in IE still for a long time. I think a lot will change for private web-apps, I mean enterprises and thousands of small to medium sized companies which do not rely on Internet Explorer (controlled environments which do not require to run anything from Netscape 4.x upwards (Intra nets, Content Editors, etc.) , they will look for web-apps which really rock - something like the next Mozilla version, a better Java Webstart, IBMs Workplace, Luxor, etc.? It will be based on open standards and it will run on any OS. Those web-apps will start dominating the "private web", those web-apps will push technology and sooner or later they will reach the "public web", that will take some time, but if it comes, Microsoft's IE share will dramatically shrink.
I also believe that the web browser will keep its ground, it will be the future single plug in (flash or other plugs, respectively their abilities, will be part of the web browser), the web browser will remain a great tool for viewing documents, the browser back button will still be there but beyond that it will allow you to maintain your web applications and run them in or outside the web browser.
Private web applications will not rely on IE, not on Avalon and not on html 4.01 or any extension to it.
Ah, Microsoft Avalon, well, it probably will be useful for private web-apps if you like Microsoft technology that much or in case that there is no other choice.


Cheers,

Karl

Gerald Bauer wrote:

Hello,

 The Guardian Newspaper has published an article by
Ben Hammersley titled "The second browser war".

  Ben writes:

 One important question remains: why did Microsoft
stop developing Internet Explorer? Why would a company
so vocal about innovation cease work on perhaps the
most used application in the world, and for nearly
three years? The answer is not definitive, but the
prevailing thinking points to the third aspect of the
browser war: it is the beginning of an even larger, if
deeply curious, battle for the domination of the
entire computer industry.

  ...

However, what would happen if people's web browsers
were capable of running complex applications, with
code based on openly published specifications? Two
things: first, the operating system would become
irrelevant, so there would be no need to upgrade to
the next version of Windows, and second, the playing
field for everything else would be thus levelled. The
majority of Microsoft's business, therefore, could
have been threatened if the IE browser team had
continued past 2001.

 ...

 Ben concludes:

By wrenching control of the standards for building
such applications away from Microsoft today, rivals
hope they can prevent another near decade of Windows
domination. Microsoft, for its part, is not going to
go down without a fight.

The browser war may well be seen as nothing but a
skirmish compared to what is coming.



Full story @ http://www.guardian.co.uk/online/story/0,3605,1260994,00.html


What's your take? Do you think Internet Explorer's market share drop from 95.73% to 94.73% heralds a new browser war?

  - Gerald

-------------------
Gerald Bauer

XUL Alliance | http://xul.sourceforge.net United XAML | http://xaml.sourceforge.net

Interested in hiring Gerald Bauer? Yes, I'm available.

If you know of an opportunity, please contact me today.


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