 Zuma’s world is cracking up all around him Karima Brown, Business Day, Johannesburg, 22 February 2010 NOT only is the African National Congress (ANC)-led alliance plagued by a debilitating succession battle, it is also riven with economic policy fissures . Allegations of corruption in the ANC, linking senior members to lucrative state tenders and patronage networks, have sparked tender wars in the state, and are often the leitmotif for power struggles in the provinces, for control of key departments to be used as springboards for private accumulation. These, and the public-relations nightmare caused by the messy private life of SA’s first citizen, now threaten to unravel the brittle coalition that brought President Jacob Zuma to power, setting the scene for a very fluid political landscape. Zuma, no doubt, realises the value of managing competing factions in the alliance, but so far he has been unable to keep the cracks from showing. His leadership is being tested, and it remains to be seen if he can hold the centre. On Friday, the ANC again tried to muzzle debate on who will succeed Zuma at the party’s 2012 elective conference, urging members to refrain from speaking on the matter publicly. In a statement, the party chastised those discussi ng the future of ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe. This after Zuma got a drubbing from the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa) for “failing to protect” Mantashe from attacks by the party’s youth league . In vintage ANC style, the party said Mantashe “did not need defending”, but its repeated efforts to put the succession genie back in the bottle suggest it has failed to rein in ambitious power brokers with pretensions to the throne. Unless it regulates and modernises its approach to leadership fights, below-the-belt campaigns aimed at damaging opponents will remain a feature of ANC succession battles . More important, though, is the backlash from trade union leaders after Zuma’s state of the nation speech and the budget speech by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Their anger and disappointment are the surest indication yet that the honeymoon between Zuma and his leftist allies is truly over. The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and its powerful affiliates criticised Zuma for failing to speak directly to their interests . Numsa was even blunter, claiming the silence of Zuma and Gordhan on issues such as jobs and a new growth path was a “betrayal” of worker support for his candidacy in the presidential election. The commitment to the creation of decent jobs was carefully negotiated in the alliance and express ed in the ANC’s Polokwane resolutions. So, too, doing things differently on the economic policy front. This, the left argues, is borne out by the agreements hammered out in engagements in the alliance, the most recent at last year’s summit . Their optimism was fed in part by the ANC’s leftist allies basking in the afterglow of being included at the highest levels of decision- making in the months before and immediately after Zuma’s ascension to the highest office . Alliance leaders started believing they were jointly responsible for running the country. After all, they were being consulted on Cabinet posts, policy questions and deployment to key state institutions. Hence their readiness to also take joint responsibility for the failures of the very administration they had helped to bring into power. But that was then. Pro-business interests in the ANC, afraid their patronage networks would be blown out of the water, came out against the “growing communist influence” in the “nationalist” movement and warned Zuma he would have to choose sides. That was especially after Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP) launched their anti corruption drive aimed at “tenderpreneurs” — politically connected businessmen who live off government tenders. This explains the anti-Mantashe campaign. It escalated with the youth league arguing that as SACP chairman, he was “conflicted” and had to be removed to restore the ANC “back to basics”. But while Zuma was never going to escape the choppy waters in the alliance, despite his inclusive leadership style, the speed of the disintegration just 10 months into his term has caught many off guard. It could even affect his administration’s ability to make good on its election promises, leaving Zuma vulnerable with a local government poll looming next year. The economic policy fight will no doubt continue and become a permanent feature of his administration. This is likely to show in the economic cluster in the Cabinet. Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel and Gordhan will probably continue their tug of war over who is in charge of macro- economic policy. While the Public Finance Management Act does give Gordhan the upper hand in terms of controlling the state purse, it is silent on who drives policy. The state’s industrial policy action plan speaks in detail about the new growth plan. But Gordhan’s vague pronouncement on how it is to be achieved underscores the Treasury’s lacklustre support . “The Presidency was meant to sign off on the protocols months ago that would have made it clear that economic development must drive macro economic policy. You have to ask what is the delay,” a policy insider says. The plan “has buy-in from no less than 15 departments, (but the) Treasury stands out as the only one pulling in another direction ”, a senior alliance official says. Unless Zuma can forge consensus about the immediate objectives of his government, manage the simmering succession war in the ANC and stem the tender wars , he is likely to remain hobbled for the rest of his term . [email protected] Karima Brown -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to this address (repeat): [email protected] . |
