 ANC Succession debate Malema’s call for debate sets cat among pigeons Julius Malema, president of the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) recently kicked off the ANC leadership succession race by calling for an open debate on the issue. This could further polarise divided sections within the ruling alliance. The call by Malema and the ANCYL places the debate about candidates for leadership in the public domain. It could also be seen as a transgression of Malema’s suspended sentence of ANC suspension from last year if he does anything to sow divisions in the ANC or bring it into ill repute. But with Malema and the ANCYL viewed by many in the ANC as a powerful alliance component with the potential to make or break leaders, it will be interesting to see if there are any leaders willing to take him up on that point. This weekend the call for an open debate received a boost from the ANC’s influential Gauteng region when provincial chairman Paul Mashatile publicly threw his weight behind it. Putting the succession debate out in the open goes against ANC tradition, and various ANC leaders have in the recent past warned against the divisiveness of such a debate. Mashatile said party members at the Gauteng ANC’s provincial general council (PGC) and four forthcoming regional party conferences had a responsibility to elect leadership that will not cause instability in the ANC and in municipalities. Mashatile has been courting favour with the ANCYL ever since his position as Gauteng leader of the party was threatened by the pro-Malema Gauteng ANCYL leadership last year. It sought to replace Mashatile, who is also Arts and Culture Minister in President Zuma’s cabinet, with Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane. But there might be more reasons behind Mashatile’s pro-Malema stance. A former Gauteng premier, he had previously been overlooked for promotion by Zuma who first appointed him to the obscure position of deputy Arts and Culture minister and kept him in the political wilderness even after promoting him full minister. Speculation has it that Mashatile is part of a “nationalist” right-wing group – the so-called “tenderpreneurs” to whom Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi frequently refers – that allegedly includes Malema, other ANCYL leaders, Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale, ANC Treasurer Mathews Phosa, Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula, Justice and Constitutional Development Minister Jeff Radebe, Tony Yengeni, Enoch Godongwana, and Billy Masethla among others. This group is said to be aimed at replacing ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe with Mbalula and Zuma with the current deputy president, Kgalema Motlanthe. However, both Motlanthe and Mantashe have strong connections to the alliance left-wing having been previous leaders of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). The left-wing is another platform where the leadership race will be fiercely debated and that will have much influence on the ANC leadership succession. Cosatu’s central committee (CC) will also be discussing the issue at its four-day meeting that started in Midrand on Monday. Vavi’s prematurely leaked report to the CC suggests that there will be an all-out attempt to curb Malema and block the right-wing who Vavi accuses of corruption. This may signal attempts to block the ANCYL’s efforts to remove Mantashe and replace him with Malema’s crony and former ANCYL president, Mbalula. Vavi’s report is also critical of President Jacob Zuma’s leadership, but appears to be even more concerned about the ANCYL’s alleged wish to remove Zuma. If the ANCYL were allowed to succeed, it would turn South Africa into a banana republic, the report states. The Cosatu CC will be keenly watched for signs of which way its support at next year’s elective conference will go. Zuma will be addressing the meeting as will SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande, whom Cosatu accuse of being too cosy with the ANC and neglecting the SACP since becoming Higher Education Minister. The tensions between the SACP and Cosatu are also likely to be addressed at the CC meeting. However the two organisations said last week they will close ranks against the "right-wing demagogic populist mobilisation" in South Africa. However, it is anticipated that Cosatu may choose this week to close ranks behind Zuma, seeing in him the lesser of two evils and sending a strong message as to the labour federation’s position leading up to the 2012 ANC national conference. It is less clear what position the federation may adopt in the case of Mantashe. His trade union and SACP connections may secure backing for him too. In the past Vavi and Cosatu had spared him strong criticism, unlike their treatment of Zuma. Meanwhile Malema has already made a play for left-wing allies believed to be disgruntled with the left’s “selling out to Zuma”, hoping to divide the left. And with Vavi already having made known his aspirations for a leadership role in the ANC and SACP at the previous Cosatu congress in 2009, a succession race within Cosatu may also develop, causing disunity. Malema’s succession statements have quite clearly launched a public debate on Zuma’s leadership and the succession race in the ANC. It is likely to also draw other factions into conflict. Such a debate could also split the ANC Women’s League down the middle, while it could pit the Congress of South African Students (Cosas) against the ANCYL. Malema is a previous leader of Cosas which recently said it wanted to “liberate the ANCYL from Malema”. Another alliance partner, the South African National Civics Organisation (Sanco) has also clashed with Malema and has rejected his nationalisation and land-grab policies. While Malema has certainly set the cat among the pigeons and will cause further polarisation in the alliance, this may yet have been his biggest tactical error. For if enough alliance components unite in backing Zuma, it will force Malema to change direction at best, and isolate and weaken him at worst. -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to this address (repeat): [email protected] . |
