NOW that an almost final appeal has failed, what are former African National Congress (ANC) Youth League president - and now former ANC member - Julius Malema's options? If we go by history, he has three possible paths, personified by three previous castaways: Bantu Holomisa, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and, of course, Jacob Zuma . The Winnie option would be to follow the example of one of his biggest supporters and benefactors after she was ousted from the party's most senior ranks; lie low and wait for a good moment to strike. Malema's problem is that his position is too different from hers. First, she was never totally ousted from the party, partly because she was considered a fly in the ointment rather than a real threat. So Malema starts in a different position to Madikizela-Mandela. It's also arguable whether Madikizela-Mandela's strategy really worked. She aimed to get back at the ANC through proxies, people like, for example, Malema. This creates a weird circularity if Malema were to try and adopt her approach. Financially, they are also in different positions. Madikizela-Mandela has always had an incentive to lie low rather than fight big, because she has continued to draw a parliamentary salary. Malema does not have that option, and presumably, his ability to tenderpreneur disappears with his membership. He desperately needs not only political backers but financial backers. The Zuma model would be to use the courts to keep himself in the running. The advantage would be that by doing so he might prevent the youth league from replacing him by claiming that the legal process has not been exhausted. This is because, as we all know, you are innocent until proven guilty, and you are not proven guilty until practically every judge in the country has been canvassed on every point. The difference is that Zuma had unlimited funds for legal action because taxpayers were paying, and so every decision could be challenged and re-challenged. Malema will have to rely on his benefactors, who are likely to disappear pretty fast, since they know what will happen to them if they are discovered supporting Malema taking the ANC to court. Also, Malema's case is weak. His strongest legal argument is that the decision of the ANC top structures to expel him offends natural justice because they were both accuser and judge. Yet my colleagues tell me our courts have consistently taken the position that so long as they are not discriminating against any group, voluntary organisations have the right to decide who their members should be. It might be worth a crack, but just by going to court, Malema is racking up another count against him, since the ANC has banned its members from taking the party to court. In short, it's a bad option. It is also the one he has apparently chosen. The Holomisa model works this way: Malema gives up any hope of regaining his position in the ANC, but he rallies his existing supporters into a new party, called, say, "The Real ANC". This seems the most unlikely eventuality, because his argument so far has been that he is a total ANC devotee - even though the party is clearly not devoted to him. But it may be the most effective strategy. The latest opinion polls put his support at about 17% of the population. Let's assume that this level of support is reduced by half, because he will be stripped of the positional status. That's still 1,8-million votes or about 35 seats in the National Assembly. That would make him the leader of the third-largest party in Parliament. He would have a healthy parliamentarian's salary and could claim R10m a year from the Represented Political Parties Fund. That won't buy many Breitling watches, but it's not to be sneezed at. Of course, he would probably never get that many votes, with the ANC's not inconsiderable guns pointed at him. Yet, who's to say? The ANC itself is divided, pretty weak and poorly led at the moment. Malema has a compelling political message, even if it would be destructive to the economy. With that parliamentary power base, the ANC might even be forced to take him back, lest it lose the aura of being the sole legitimate representative of black South Africans. If Malema really is the young lion he claims, he should take the Holomisa road. But is he? * Cohen is contributing editor NOW that an almost final appeal has failed, what are former African National Congress (ANC) Youth League president - and now former ANC member - Julius Malema's options? If we go by history, he has three possible paths, personified by three previous castaways: Bantu Holomisa, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and, of course, Jacob Zuma . The Winnie option would be to follow the example of one of his biggest supporters and benefactors after she was ousted from the party's most senior ranks; lie low and wait for a good moment to strike. Malema's problem is that his position is too different from hers. First, she was never totally ousted from the party, partly because she was considered a fly in the ointment rather than a real threat. So Malema starts in a different position to Madikizela-Mandela. It's also arguable whether Madikizela-Mandela's strategy really worked. She aimed to get back at the ANC through proxies, people like, for example, Malema. This creates a weird circularity if Malema were to try and adopt her approach. Financially, they are also in different positions. Madikizela-Mandela has always had an incentive to lie low rather than fight big, because she has continued to draw a parliamentary salary. Malema does not have that option, and presumably, his ability to tenderpreneur disappears with his membership. He desperately needs not only political backers but financial backers. The Zuma model would be to use the courts to keep himself in the running. The advantage would be that by doing so he might prevent the youth league from replacing him by claiming that the legal process has not been exhausted. This is because, as we all know, you are innocent until proven guilty, and you are not proven guilty until practically every judge in the country has been canvassed on every point. The difference is that Zuma had unlimited funds for legal action because taxpayers were paying, and so every decision could be challenged and re-challenged. Malema will have to rely on his benefactors, who are likely to disappear pretty fast, since they know what will happen to them if they are discovered supporting Malema taking the ANC to court. Also, Malema's case is weak. His strongest legal argument is that the decision of the ANC top structures to expel him offends natural justice because they were both accuser and judge. Yet my colleagues tell me our courts have consistently taken the position that so long as they are not discriminating against any group, voluntary organisations have the right to decide who their members should be. It might be worth a crack, but just by going to court, Malema is racking up another count against him, since the ANC has banned its members from taking the party to court. In short, it's a bad option. It is also the one he has apparently chosen. The Holomisa model works this way: Malema gives up any hope of regaining his position in the ANC, but he rallies his existing supporters into a new party, called, say, "The Real ANC". This seems the most unlikely eventuality, because his argument so far has been that he is a total ANC devotee - even though the party is clearly not devoted to him. But it may be the most effective strategy. The latest opinion polls put his support at about 17% of the population. Let's assume that this level of support is reduced by half, because he will be stripped of the positional status. That's still 1,8-million votes or about 35 seats in the National Assembly. That would make him the leader of the third-largest party in Parliament. He would have a healthy parliamentarian's salary and could claim R10m a year from the Represented Political Parties Fund. That won't buy many Breitling watches, but it's not to be sneezed at. Of course, he would probably never get that many votes, with the ANC's not inconsiderable guns pointed at him. Yet, who's to say? The ANC itself is divided, pretty weak and poorly led at the moment. Malema has a compelling political message, even if it would be destructive to the economy. With that parliamentary power base, the ANC might even be forced to take him back, lest it lose the aura of being the sole legitimate representative of black South Africans. If Malema really is the young lion he claims, he should take the Holomisa road. But is he? * Cohen is contributing editor http://www.investec.com/legal/email-disclaimer.html The disclaimer also provides our corporate information and names of our directors as required by law. The disclaimer is deemed to form part of this message in terms of Section 11 of the Electronic Communications and Transactions Act 25 of 2002. If you cannot access the disclaimer, please obtain a copy thereof from us by sending an email to: [email protected] -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. 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