How ANC Gauteng lost the plot
Lower number of votes was caused by leaders more interested in creating
mutual assistance fraternities
Dominic Tweedie, The New Age, Johannesburg, 14 May 2014
The results of last week's national election in South Africa present a
simple picture - The African National Congress (ANC) has achieved a decisive
win.
The ANC won 11 436 921 votes, 62% of the total, in support of its
comprehensive manifesto outlining its National Development Plan, and for a
radical second phase of the national democratic revolution. The people have
spoken. South Africa's course is set, for now.
For four months, from the ANC's Anniversary Statement in early January, to
the Siyanqoba Rally in early May, the ANC's message has been consistent, and
it has been understood. The overall result is a clear and unequivocal
majority for the ANC, and for its programme.
There is, however, a dark side to this picture. This article examines the
election results in more detail, with a view to what may happen in
subsequent elections, beginning with the Municipal Elections scheduled for
2016.
In four out of the nine Provinces, including the Western Cape, the ANC
actually gained votes in 2014 as compared with the previous similar election
in 2009.
In another four Provinces, the ANC majority was slightly reduced in 2014,
but was still way above two-thirds of the votes cast in those provinces.
Only in the ninth Province - Gauteng - is the report card less than positive
from the ANC point of view. It is Gauteng's terrible performance that
accounts for most of the drop in countrywide support for the ANC from about
66% overall in 2009, to 62% now.
With just over 6 million, Gauteng is by nearly one million registered
voters, the largest province, over the next biggest (KZN). The ANC share of
the ballot in Gauteng dropped by 10%, to 55%.
Worse than that, from the ANC point of view, the two most important Metros
in the country - South Africa's administrative and business capitals,
Tshwane and Johannesburg, are clearly in the "relegation zone", with 51% and
54% majorities, respectively.
Gauteng's third major Metro, the vast East Rand industrial heartland called
Ekurhuleni, is also now in play with just over 56%.
A considerably smaller swing than what we have seen this time can take these
three Metros out of ANC control, or else force the ANC into an unwanted
coalition with a hostile partner in the shape of the Democratic Alliance
(DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
There are no other likely contenders. In Gauteng, we have a three-horse
race.
These potential upsets can happen in the municipal elections within two
years. Indeed, unless the ANC is able to turn the tide around - as it has
done in Cape Town - the loss of Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni in 2016
is a racing certainty. To say otherwise is to be in denial.
Unfortunately for the ANC, its Gauteng Province does appear to be in that
condition. All sorts of excuses are being offered to the media, officially
and unofficially, by ANC members anxious to save their careers But excuses
will not turn the electoral tide for the ANC. Only remedying its weaknesses
will help it.
What are these weaknesses?
Generally, the ANC branches in the three giant metros of Gauteng have become
little more than a career path for highly ambitious office seekers. As a
consequence, factions have developed which are not ideological, but are more
like mutual-assistance fraternities, bordering on gangs. The most successful
of these have become arrogant, and consequently, unattractive to voters.
The ruling clique in the Gauteng ANC is overconfident to the extent of
showing disrespect to the ANC at national level, and in public, too.
>From vacating their seats at the Mangaung National Conference in December
2012, as seen on TV, to organising the public booing of the President of the
ANC at the FNB Stadium, not once but twice, to refusing to use the
President's image on T-shirts in the election, the Gauteng ANC has flaunted
its defiance.
But, as the national results clearly show, it was not the President, or the
ANC nationally that was punished by the electorate.
Instead, it was the Gauteng ANC that lost a serious number of votes, pulled
down the ANC's national total, and put its own province in jeopardy.
Can the Gauteng ANC, ocean-like, clean itself in time to keep what it has so
nearly lost?
Regional and Provincial Conferences are scheduled to take place this year,
but with the branch leaderships being in their current condition of
nepotism, there is little prospect of change. Most likely, the Gauteng ANC
will go into battle in 2016 led by the same disloyal generals who failed it
so conspicuously in 2014.
ANC democracy will have to be restored from the ground up.
That only happens when somebody gets on and does it.
Alliance partners in the SACP, and from within COSATU, will do their best to
strengthen the cause of the ANC and to rescue it from the impending
disaster, as they did in this year's elections. Without their efforts, the
Gauteng result was going to be worse. The ANC could have lost the province,
already.
Of course, if it is not hit, the ANC will not fall. Who can hit it? The DA
gained 7% in the 2014 elections that they did not have in 2009, while Cope
was effectively wiped out.
Some are predicting that the same kind of infighting that destroyed Cope,
will now destroy its replacement, the EFF, which got 10% in Gauteng. That is
not a foregone conclusion. So far, it is the DA which is looking more like
the next victim of self-inflicted implosion.
The EFF is for the time being a serious contender in Gauteng. A quick look
at the election results shows that as much as 36% of the EFF's electoral
support in the country - 420,000 votes out of 1, 169,000 - were gathered in
the same three marginal Gauteng Metros of Tshwane, Johannesburg and
Ekurhuleni. These votes were gathered by organised structures of the EFF.
The EFF is led by clownish millionaires dressed up as mock Che Guevara-like
characters from a cheap video production.
It has no internal democracy to speak of. The EFF is aiming to surpass
"tenderpreneurship", and install oligarchy in South Africa. The EFF is an
obvious, living lie; bogus, fraudulent, demagogic and fascist.
Unfortunately, none of these things mean that the EFF cannot increase its
electoral support.
The EFF is organised as well as the ANC. It is a top-down hierarchy, but it
works. The ANC can be much stronger than the EFF, when its democratic
branches are working. Unlike the EFF, the ANC does not work well as a
command structure.
The ANC only works well when it remembers its own slogan: Power, to the
People!
This is how the contest is shaping up for 2016. This contest has already
begun.
. Dominic Tweedie is a member of the Gauteng Provincial Executive
Committee of the South African Communist Party. This article is written in
his personal capacity.
--
--
You are subscribed. This footer can help you.
Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this
message.
You can visit the group WEB SITE at
http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options,
pages, files and membership.
To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You
don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put
anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to this
address (repeat): [email protected] .
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"YCLSA Discussion Forum" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
