In July 2015, both the BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), will hold summits in Ufa. Russia will chair both of these meetings. Ufa is the capital of the Republic of Bashkortostan, in the Russian Federation, and a centre if the oil industry. PLEASE ALSO FIND, ATTACHED, PART 2 OF "China-Russia Double Helix", DETAILING LINKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA. Part 2 should have been sent yesterday. Part 4 will be sent tomorrow.
_____ THE VINEYARD OF THE SAKER The China-Russia Double Helix Part 3, Security Larchmonter 445, White Paper on Russia-China Resistance, Vineyard of the Saker, 2014 SCO Eurasian Security Barely known to most people, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will become the key Eurasian organization through which the diverse national interests of India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, and Vietnam are served in a cooperative environment. United in their economic development through the reality of Eurasia Economic Belt, all their security issues versus terrorism, separatism and criminal drug and human trafficking are handled within SCO. Though it is not a military alliance, it uses joint military and policing activities in an interesting array. Ultimately, SCO is a defensive layer against destabilization proxies (think ISIS, Taliban, AQ, East Turkistan Islamic Movement, PKK, PUK Kurds) that may be mounted against any one or more member states. Should Turkey finally come into the fold of SCO, along with Iran, NATO will be neutralized against member states. These SCO developments are in the cards. It takes time, but India and Pakistan are in line to full membership in 2015, and then Iran and Turkey will complete a powerhouse of SCO members, all with the same interests, no matter how diverse the cultures and ideologies. There is a generally unspoken tool of destabilization-Islamic terror in the form of direct Wahhabi-driven conflict (AQ, ISIS, Taliban, etc.) and the more covert separatist programs that affect both nations (and in Russia's case, its Middle East allies and customers, who just happen to be investment partners with China for oil and infrastructure projects). China is susceptible to destabilization in Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and, perhaps, Inner Mongolia, though unlikely in any to be remotely eventful while China is a vibrant economy. Full bellies and fat wallets don't arm rebellions. It was so generally peaceful in Xinjiang, that up until two years ago, unarmed police were the rule for security forces in the Province (Autonomous Region). Until several unarmed policewomen and men were stabbed to death by terrorists-separatists trained by AQ and Taliban in Pakistan, the Chinese never used repression or harsh tactics. Now that the terrorists get Syria-based training by off-shoot Wahhabi fanatics, the PLA military is being used, specially trained police teams and a regime of control is being brought to parts of Xinjiang. China is using Chechnyan Republic President Kadyrov's tactics with terrorists. They are killing them on sight in large numbers whenever possible. Those who go to trial, if violent or plotters of violence, get the death penalty. Eurasia development faces embedded potential ethnic, tribal, Islamic and criminal forces that will have to be dealt with as China pushes into Central Asia and works with Afghanistan and Pakistan. U.S. and NATO remnants and paid allies in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan could stir security problems. AQ and ISIS, the two Talibans and other Turkic groups are all players for the West's Intel agencies. The New Silk Road will not go as smooth as its name. Not Global Military Alliance Most profoundly, the Double Helix is not a global military alliance. Both nations eschew military alliances beyond regional. However, the test of the double helix bonding had to work out the military affinities, or the existential threat would not be blunted and turned away. Both militaries had to be able to imagine a force structure and force protection that conjoined their defenses, systems, intelligence, communication and command integration if needed. This unity might take years, but they had no time to waste. This could not be superficial, so they had to permit intrusive sharing. This might be difficult because their languages were so different. They overcame all obstacles because of necessity and leadership. President Putin and President Xi had identical needs. Their nations were subjects of containment by a hegemonic power with its allies who surrounded their nations with an array of full spectrum platforms and systems that challenged them 24/7, any weather, any phase of the moon. Though daily global trade with the Hegemon and foreign direct investment from the Hegemon made the threat appear less serious, the reality was the Hegemon was running out of time. China and Russia were growing rich while the Hegemon was growing poor, and China and Russia were growing, while the Hegemon was shriveling its once-great economy with endless wars, debt, waste and corrupt practices. Shoigu and Li China and Russia scheduled top-level meetings. Five meetings have occurred between Putin and Xi so far in 2014. Business and military leaders met. Premiers met. But the most intriguing meeting of all was recently in Beijing, where Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu met with Premier Li Keqiang. This was after Shoigu met with his counterparts in the military and defense ministry of China. (34) What this meeting signals was the integration of the Russian MIC (military industrial complex) with the Chinese MIC. Top-secret weapons systems must have been the topic, one assumes. If it was a courtesy call, it was beyond protocol. The two men, Shoigu and Li, function for their nations in separate governmental realms. The Chinese Premier usually is involved with economic issues and the massive central government bureaucracy. However, one of his other titles is Chairman of the National Defense Mobilization Commission. That covers equipment, anti-aircraft, communications, as well as the economy. It is everything, except the PLA itself, in terms of defense. President Xi chairs the Military Commission, and the PLA is sworn to the Party and to him as Chairman of the CPC. Premier Li has the MIC as his portfolio. But when you analyze the Double Helix, you can see that Russian military and Chinese production capacity and financing were being clarified. Like parents arranging a marriage, the top representatives were arranging something. General Shoigu was there for his military. Li was there for his economy. Based on some prior agreement between Putin and Xi, beyond discussion of heavy lift helicopters, jet engines for fighters, new submarine orders or microelectronics components for systems, the Russian military met Chinese money and production capacity in Zhongnanhai. Only time will tell what weapon, if it was a weapon system, required this intimate, personal meeting. Later, I will suggest one other additional and/or very different possibility for this meeting between Shoigu and Li. Surprise The great expanse of Russia from the Baltic and Black and Caspian seas to the Pacific, Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan as an east-west territory now had an East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central Asia adjunct-China. Russia could be seen as even larger than largest geographically. Her pipelines, highways, airports, seaports and weapons systems would be connecting and protecting nations from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean, as well as from the Eastern Europe borders to the Kurill Islands and Vladivostok, touching China for border crossings at Zabikalsk-Manzhouli and Pogranichy-Suifenhe in Heilongjiang Province along the Black Dragon/Amur River. This unity is about much more than Harbin's massive ice sculptures or Russia's massive oil and gas reserves buried deep below snow, ice and frozen rock. This Double Helix was going to be about strategic surprise. China had surprised the Hegemon twice before with weapons. One was its satellite killer (kinetic hit-to-kill vehicle) that took out one of its own old satellites in 2007. Another more advanced test was launched in 2013. What made this tough for the Intel agencies to know in advance was the missile carrying the ASAT weapon was launched from a road mobile launcher. The other surprise was China's carrier killer missile, land based, that could take out a carrier from one thousand miles away. The Mach 10 DF-21D is indefensible except by electronic countermeasures and luck. Both weapons were exactly what China needed to shock the U.S. Space command and the U.S. Navy. They are still stunned and worried by the Chinese capacity and their own Intel failure. Both weapons are land-based and mobile, making the Chinese defenses agile and illusive. Russia, too, has stunned the Hegemon with Crimea and the cancellation of South Stream, but, before those events, with Putin's sudden diplomatic initiative to get the Syrian chemical weapons deal done, thereby ending the weapons threat as a cause of war. The start of an all out Obama-desired air war against Syria would have put Russia in a bad military and geopolitical quandary. Defend Syria overtly with military or display weakness, as Medvedev did in Libya. Instead, the aggression against Assad by U.S./ NATO came to a screeching halt. (It went covert until ISIS was readied and unleashed). These three Russian initiatives were shocking events, signaling Intel failures by the Hegemon while displaying world-class agility by Putin with military and diplomacy, leaving Russia as more than a regional player while out-maneuvering NATO and proxies without firing a shot or losing control of events in two different theaters of conflict. While threats abound, the Double Helix grows On the Chinese side are people, masses of people, one third of whom have been raised from serfdom to middle class in just 30-plus years. The Chinese have also mastered 'opening up' their economy to venture capital, industrialization and service sector organizations, without losing control to foreign interests. They have kept a central bank separated from IMF and from the Federal Reserve and western central bank systems. They have kept state management control of all strategic industries. They have used foreign direct investment to spectacular advantage, forcing joint ventures to ultimately share intellectual property, patents and design copyrights. The Chinese have forced technology transfers wherever they needed to have state-of-the-art and could not reverse engineer it. They learned every capitalist trick from studiously analyzing the American rise from frontier agricultural nation to the greatest global economic power. The Chinese admire America's rise into an economic behemoth while fearing its government and global hegemony. Most importantly, the Chinese protected the RMB, the yuan, from manipulation. They carefully introduced the yuan to trading partners, but never allowed their currency to fully trade as a Forex currency. China pegs its yuan to the U.S. dollar, thus restricting manipulation and speculation. There is no float rate and interest rates are state-controlled. The yuan gradually became convertible from dollars, yens, Swiss francs, Euros, Hong Kong dollars and rubles. The Chinese use RMB for bilateral settlement, case by case. It will be five more years before China intends to let the yuan 'float' in currency markets. The IMF, in its twice-a-decade review, is considering including the RMB in a basket of Special Drawing Rights reserve currencies. The yuan passes all parameters, but this will assist China and Russia to remove the dominance of the dollar, and the decision is not yet permitted by Washington, who controls the IMF. The China-Russia plan for international reserved currency is to propose a bundle of currencies, not one, as the dollar serves today. If the IMF does not act favorably, there may be turmoil coming to that system. China has many allies for such a move. This clearly signals, though they are the largest economy, they do not desire or plan for dominance or to expose themselves to the concept of being the unipolar nation by replacing the United States. They want influence and cooperative leadership positions in new international institutions, and the Chinese signal that policy in every way. The Dragon prefers to be the Panda, most of the time. Rise of Shanghai The Chinese shrewdly used the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock exchange and the former royal colony's banks for their own flexibility until they were ready to dwarf what once was thought to be Asia's financial heart. Shenzhen, next door to Hong Kong, had been selected by Deng Xiaoping for the initial showcase of 'opening up' for a good reason. Hong Kong was the enormous port for imports and exports, and Hong Kong was the last 'western' banking center that capitalists trusted doing business with Beijing. Now that center of finance and banking would be Shanghai; a Shanghai stock market and the RMB that would soon rule Asia because Beijing had the scale to do it. One of the unmentioned realities of the recent Occupy Central and the 'yellow umbrella' circus in Hong Kong is the city will be second to Shanghai soon, and it will be at the economic mercy of Beijing. Shanghai will be the new world center of banking and finance in a decade or two. This is now assured with Eurasia development, New Silk Road, Maritime Silk Road and the Double Helix. London, desperately grasped a piece of the Chinese currency action just in time. It will be a RMB clearing house, an offshore RMB center. New York's financial industry may not yet understand that it, too, will succumb to the Dragon's wealth creation sometime in the coming decades. These are reasons for containment and destabilization by the Hegemon and the Elites who do understand this inevitability. But, Eurasia tips the globe to the East. And the 'Double Helix' is one centrifugal force spinning the power toward Asia and Eurasia. Scale--Size Matters Scale matters if a nation knows how to use it. (for example, China does, India doesn't.) Scale in factory output, cheap labor, high savings rate, massive infrastructure development, and logistics were things never seen on earth until China. Even the U.S. during WWII could not match what China was now doing. And all the while, the earnings were piling up by the trillions in the Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the People's Bank of China (Central Bank of PRC). In terms of cash on hand, China's horde of cash and U.S. Treasury Bills and purchases of gold was unprecedented. The dynamics has changed the Dragon not only into 'the factory of the world'. China became one of the most shrewd bankers of the world. China's state-managed economy enables it to do things other countries don't do. China can direct its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to invest in projects domestically or in foreign projects. This is actually another form of geopolitical financial power. The treasuries of those SOEs are like bank accounts at the disposal of the Central Government. The Premier, presently, Li Keqiang, is the economic czar, so to speak. The seven members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo execute the five-year plans, with President Xi Jinping setting the targets philosophically and Premier Li directing the government bureaucracy, banks and SOEs to achieve the goals. Growth Matters Growth is everything to Chinese new-born capitalists. Profits are power, sometimes more powerful than mere wealth because they are daily, quarterly, annual and indicate rapid growth. Growth is a word and event that is not happening in the Empire of the Hegemon. EU is in reverse and the U.S. is a phantom economy, sucking assets from the middle class and expanding a dependent base in a highly vertical reformation of the economy. Elites have it all. The good jobs and careers are gone. Social conflict is rising. America has lost its way. No five-year plan for growth, no one-year plan, not even a plan for the next quarter. The U.S. economy has been built to serve the Elites and their need for greed. All processes serve that need well. The markets are rigged in dark pools, derivatives and criminality that goes unchecked, save a few 'insider trading prosecutions' and 'big bank fines' that feed the government with 'revenues' or transfers of wealth from stockholders (middle class) that are not direct taxes. Wealth Matters In China, the wealth is in the control and management of the state. Savings are used for the wealth development of the nation and its people. Yes, one million millionaires and hundreds of billionaires have done well in the rapid growth of China. However, they do not have elite control of the economy. They play their role in the public and private sectors, and in foreign investments and tourism, but they don't alter the public plans or manipulate the public markets (though they try, as it is human nature to be greedy or criminal or irresponsible). The revenues in the coffers of capitalist China enable President Xi to make any project in any country happen. He is bankrolling the BRICS development bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Eurasian Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road development. These are like multiple Marshall Plans without the military conquest. They are meant to transform other trading partners from dirt poor into middle class economies capable of buying Chinese products, using Chinese expertise, and ultimately, purchasing services from China. It is elementary economics. Invest in a nation, build its infrastructure, expand trade with it, educate their young; then that nation emerges from poverty, develops its own production capacity, and matures. All the while, the trade partner climbs the value chain of products and services China offers. China can do this on a scale unlike any nation ever. It does it in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East (except the U.S. has pushed back with ISIS to destroy Iraq and Syria, and with AQ in Libya where China has massive infrastructure and oil investments. Likewise, China has previously agreed upon Ukraine and Crimea development investments pre-the junta coup.) So, with Russia so close and in need of what China can do on such large scales, the gigantic natural resources exploitation and infrastructure needs of Russia have met the gigantic financial capacity and commodity needs of China. The resolution of the hegemonic threat through peaceful means was logical and a product of the minds of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Thus, the Double Helix. The Result facing the Hegemon The U.S. and NATO would need Michael the Archangel to defeat China-Russia, and from all signs, he's aligned with the Bear and its Orthodox culture. There is no weapon, no strategy, no tactic conceivable in the near future (which is all the Double Helix needs) to damage either of these rising economies now that they are 'base pairs'. China will get stronger and bigger. Russia will get stronger and bigger. And in five to ten years, the international systems of finance and banking and trade settlement, currencies and credit ratings and development loans will be thoroughly changed. It is tantamount to disarmament of the Hegemon's most dangerous weapons. Ironically, only the Hegemon's military will remain. The Hegemon will lose its most devastating weapons that enslave, subject, humiliate, ruin and change regimes-its economic weapons. Future The better part of the world's nations will have moved on to solving problems. Nations will think in different terms and relationships. Sovereignty and regions will matter again. Cooperation will regulate competition. Win-win will replace domination. What was once 'honorable and necessary' will be looked at as criminal, if war and chaos is the only solution a former hegemon or alliance can offer. Perhaps, some form of NATO and its Islamic Wahhabi terror forces it has been cultivating with the Saudis, Qataris and other devils with billions of dollars will persist. But they will ultimately grow cold and brittle and not be viable unless they become pirate marauders. There will be no economic sustenance available for such forces. China acting in its own interests? Of course, China is acting in its own interests. But any organism-and a nation is not an edifice, it is an organism-has life-sustaining needs. And the China organism needs blood. That blood is oil and gas. The China organism needs a nervous system that can't be shut down by shock wave or sabotage. IT security and radars, satellites and on-ground defense systems are imperative components of such a nervous system. And the organism of China, huge as it is, packed densely with people, needs stability for sleep, for rest, for meditation. Russia, as powerful a nuclear force in the world, has China's enormous back, adds to its blue water defenses, mans the digital and electronic turrets, and changes and hardens the geographic, economic and financial targets that the Hegemon could use to contain, destabilize and cause regime change in Beijing, thereby, toppling the state governance by the Communist Party of China. There are no substitutes for the decades ahead of such a vital molecular bonding as the Double Helix. Equality of Effect So, the double helix metaphor works for both in equanimous ways. Russia receives its blood through yuans, loans, use of Union Pay credit card system, joint ventures, advance payments, dependable contracts and logistical solutions. China provides a territorial shield and additional force multiplication for Russia's nervous system. Finally, stability, too, is necessary for Russia to breathe and get forward momentum in critical areas of development. There will always be housing for Russians in Russia now that China is close. China can put up tens of thousands of housing units in a few months. There will be alternate sources of food. The most basic needs of Russian people are secured with the double helix pairing. China bought the largest pork producer in America and is already shipping pork to Russia. China is so efficient in some food processes that American scallops are shipped to China for cleaning, then come back to U.S. Foreign Policies and Societies Metaphor or not, the Double Helix is real. It serves as the new DNA structure but does not change the external policies or internal societies of either nation. It merely is the new organism architecture against which the Hegemon will flail. Now the two sovereign nations will be presenting themselves as one double helix. This 'one' is not a merger, not an alliance, not even a commonality of interests. Those are represented through SCO, APEC, etc. This 'one' is force multiplication and projection of power within a fourth dimension of geopolitics. It multiplies all the molecules or magnifies them. To attack or target the IT or satellites of either is to strike both. Destabilize either, and both are struck. Contain one, both are contained. Demonize one, both are vilified. Custer found that it was not just Lakota Sioux he faced. He faced Arapaho, Arikara, Cheyenne, Crow, Santee and seven bands of Lakota (Blackfeet, Brule, Hunkpapa, Oglala, Minniconju, Sans Arc and Two Kettle). This was an object lesson. Historically, on the plains of America, Native Americans had done the same as China and Russia. Their error was not to do it much sooner and everywhere long before they were overwhelmed by the invading immigrants. China and Russia have acted in timely fashion. 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China-Russia Double Helix, Vineyard of the Saker, Part 2, Links.doc
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