Russian military options in Syria and the Ukraine The Saker, 16 August 2016 The past two weeks have been rich in military developments directly affecting Russia: Syria: 1) Russia has announced that she will transform the Khmeimim airfield into a full-fledged military base with a permanently deployed task force <https://www.rt.com/news/355516-khmeimim-base-russia-enlargement/> . 2) Russia will deploy her heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser (often referred to in the West as an "aircraft carrier") Admiral Kuznetsov <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admiral_Kuznetsov> to the eastern Mediterranean to check the combat capabilities of the ship and its strike group and to engage, for the very first time, the state-of-the-art Ka-52K Katran helicopters <http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/ka-52k-katran-helicopter/> . The Ukraine: 1) Following the failure of the Ukronazis to infiltrate saboteurs on the Crimean Peninsula <http://theduran.com/russian-fsb-vs-ukrainian-saboteurs-shoot-crimea/> ,which President Putin called "stupid and criminal", Poroshenko has now ordered a reinforcement of his military forces on border with Crimea and eastern Ukraine and placed its military on its highest alert <https://www.rt.com/news/355520-ukraine-troops-border-alert/> . 2) The authorities in Kiev decided not to accept the credentials of the new Russian ambassador to the Ukraine. <http://www.pravdareport.com/news/world/ussr/ukraine/04-08-2016/135217-ukrai ne_russia_ambassador-0/> 3) President Putin declared that in this context, negotiations with Kiev are "pointless <http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/unforgiving-rhetoric-vladimir-putin.html> ". While not directly connected, all of these news items point to a possible military escalation which could result in Russia having to engaged her military in combat operations in Syria, Crimea and Novorussia. Thus is makes sense at this point to review the Russian options in all these theaters of war. The Syrian theater: There is a great deal of misunderstanding about the Russian military options in Syria. Just as the major Russian military intervention which was initially expected failed to materialize (the actual Russian intervention was very limited in both size and time), the reinforcement of the Khmeimim airbase will not result in a major strategic shift in the regional balance of power. A couple of reminders: First, the Russian naval base at Tartus is not really a "naval base" at all. It is a port which the Russian Navy has been using, but it lack the capability to dock large ships and it is not defended in a way a normal Russian military base would be. In fact, the Russian refer to it as a "пункт материально-технического обеспечения" or "material-technical supply point". It is possible, even likely, that in time Russia will expand and reinforce Tartus, but for the foreseeable future Tartus will not be a major military outpost for the Russian Navy. Second, the airbase in Khmeimin is located in a very dangerous spot: roughly 1000km from the Russian border and only 50km from the Turkish border. It is also nicely wedged right between the CENTCOM "area of responsibility" and NATO. This is most definitely not a location you want to try to threaten US forces from. Also, this is also not a location which Russia would defend with nuclear forces <http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-nineteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syri a-would-russia-use-nukes-to-defend-khmeimim/> . Defense Minister Shoigu did, in fact, clearly spell out <https://russian.rt.com/article/316649-sergei-shoigu-baza-v-sirii-nuzhna-dly a> what the purpose of the Russian presence in Khmeimim will be: a) to attack terrorists and b) to defend Russian nationals. Again, these are very limited goals which will be attained by using limited means. To be sure, Khmeimim will also become a crucial intelligence hub for Russia and, once the airbase is expanded, the Russian search and rescue capabilities will be dramatically enhanced. For both of these tasks Russian special forces will be permanently stationed at the airbase. Finally, the Russians will increase the size of the runways to make it accessible to the heaviest Russian transport aircraft. But the fundamental characteristic of the Khmeimim airbase will always remind that it will remain vulnerable due to its location and long distance from Russia. As for the deployment of the Kuznetsov, which is primarily a formidable air defense ship, it will allow the Russians to get a much fuller signal intelligence picture the region and will provide a solid protection for both Tartus and Khmeimim. The first-time deployment of the Ka-52K (which were initially commissioned to be deployed on the French "Mistrals") will be a testing side show but not a crucial game changer in the war. All in all, the Russians are most definitely increasing their capabilities and the range of options to chose from different options depending on the evolution of the situation. At this point, there are no signs of a major shift in the Russian position: ever since the "semi-withdrawal" of Russian Aerospace forces from Syria, Russia is still counting primarily on her long-rage bombers (Tu-22M3). These can, if needed, be supplemented by Su-34/Su-30/Su-35 strike groups flying out of southern Russia. The Ukrainian theater: The situation in the Ukraine is much more unpredictable than the one in Syria and it has been so for a long while now. Almost every week we saw warnings about a possible Ukrainian attack, sometimes even announced as "imminent" and then that attack failed to materialize. The dangerous thing about these false warnings is that they were not false at all and that these attacks truly could have happened almost any week. Worst of all, there is now a "boy who cried wolf <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf> " phenomenon taking place where everybody is becoming bored with the endless warnings about an imminent Ukronazi attack. The problem is that, of course, such attack is becoming more and more likely with every passing day. There are those who argue that an Ukronazi attack against Crimea would be suicidal, and they are absolutely correct, and that an Ukronazi attack against Novorussia would be exceedingly unlikely to succeed, and they are correct again. The assumption here is that the regime in Kiev is capable of rational calculation and that the purpose of such an attack would be victory. But, in reality, victory was never a Ukronazi goal. Instead, the goal was always to draw Russia into a open war. The Ukronazis themselves are deluding themselves in the hope that they will get to do what the Croats did in 1995 when they, backed by the full airpower of NATO, attacked the (disarmed) Croatian Serbs in the so-called "Krajinas". In reality, the situation in the Donbass is totally different: not only are the Novorussians not disarmed like the Krajina Serbs were (all their "heavy weapons" were in UNPROFOR controlled depots), but unlike the poor Serbs (who were betrayed by Milosevic), the Novorussians know that if things get tough Russia will back them, including by deniable long-range artillery strikes (as she did in July 2014). As for Crimea, even the most deluded Ukrainians must realize by now, even if they don't admit this, that they will never re-take Crimea <http://thesaker.is/why-ukraine-will-never-retake-crimea/> . The problem for Russia is that while the regime in Kiev is slowly rotting into irrelevance, there is only one thing which the Ukraine can offer the AngloZionist Empire: to become the sacrificial lamb in a desperate effort to provoke Russian into an intervention and thereby make the current "tepid war" between NATO and Russia fully irreversible or even "hot". An overt Russian counter-attack in the Donbass, or even from Crimea, is every Neocon's dream come true. So far, all the Ukronazis were capable of doing is constantly shelling the civilians of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics which, being 100% dependent on Moscow, had to put up with this infamy even though scores of innocents civilians have been killed every day. There is also a lot of indirect evidence that the military capabilities of the Novorussians have dramatically increased over the past year or so and that makes it even more frustrating for them to put with the constant provocations and murders of civilians. The Kremlin, however, has evidently decided that a small and steady stream of murdered civilians in the Donbass is still preferable to a full-scale military operation followed by, and this is often overlooked, the occupation of at least some part of the Ukrainian territory. Indeed, once you occupy it - you own it and you are responsible for it. Nobody in Russia is willing to shoulder the costs of a war and the subsequent occupation and reconstruction of a territory currently under Ukronazi control. Finally, why give the regime in Kiev a life-saving distraction when it does such a world-class job slowly but surely destroying itself? The paradox here is that the Russian strength is also the Russian weakness: chances are that the Novorussians are capable of not only stopping a Ukronazi attack, but even of an operational depth counter-attack. Thus, it is most likely that Russia herself would not be pulled into an over war over the Donbass. But in Crimea there are no Novorussians, no Donetsk or Lugansk people's republics. In Crimea there are only Russians and Crimea is Russia. Thus any Ukronazi attack on Crimea would be a direct act of war against Russia which Russia could not ignore or reply to by using a "voentorg" + "northern wind" combo (voentorg: covert supplying of weapons; "northern wind" covert supplying of military specialists). If Crimea is attacked, the Russians will have to strike back, whether they want it or not. If that happens, the Russian counter-strike will most likely be limited and will probably focus on the forces directly responsible for the attack. But if the Ukronazis use their artillery from well-entrenched positions to unleash a steady barrage on the towns of northern Crimea or if, God forbid, the Ukronazis use ballistic missiles to target major urban centers in Crimea, the Russians will have no choice but to counter-attack swiftly and decisively. And since 08.08.08 it is become clear that the West will always blame Russia, even if she is first attacked by another party. In purely military terms, any conflict between the Russian armed forces and the Ukronazis would be a massacre: all the Ukrainians can bring to the battlefield are numbers, but they are completely out-gunned, quantitatively and, even more so, qualitatively by the Russians. The Russian artillery is currently the most capable on the planet, it is even far superior to anything in the West, and its effects on the Ukrainian military have been absolutely devastating in the past. Russia has an unique combination of UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and EW (Electronic Warfare) capabilities which are directly plugged-in into the targeting systems of Russian multiple-rocket launchers which can reach as far as 90km into the enemy's rear. Finally, the Russians have been working for years on advanced submuntions and thermobaric warheads which can be used with devastating effect on armored forces and fortified positions. This combo of UAV and advanced multiple-rocket launchers form what the Russians call a "reconnaissance-strike complex" or RSC (разведывательно-ударный комплекс) which is a concept first developed by the Soviets as far back as the 1960s. The RSC fully integrates all the following elements: reconnaissance, guidance, electronic counter-measures, navigation and engagement of high-precision weapons. Now, with the advent of new UAV and counter-battery radars, this concept has reached its full maturity and is now the cornerstone of Russian combined-arms operations. What this all means in practical terms is that the Russians now have the capability completely destroy several mechanized battalions in 2-3 minutes only. And there is nothing, nothing at all, which the Ukrainians could do against this. The Russians also have vastly superior armor, electronic warfare capabilities, aerospace forces, intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, training - you name it. The Ukrainians don't stand a chance. One big canard is the notion that US deliveries of "lethal weapons" to the Ukraine would somehow tip the balance. In reality, no amount of weapons would make any difference. Russian capabilities today are as far superior to the Ukrainian ones as the capabilities of the US military were superior to the Iraqi military in 1990 during Desert Storm. While in 1991 the Ukrainian military was nominally larger than the Russian one (the Ukraine inherited the entire Soviet strategic 2nd echelon forces), it did not have a war in Chechnia to force it to begin reorganizing like the Russian one had to, nor did it have a President like Putin who as soon as he came to power embarked on an immense military reform whose fruits are now finally showing. As a result, the Russians have now achieved several generational breakthroughs while the Ukrainians are basically stuck with 1980s gear and a completely disorganized, corrupt and incompetent military. It will take the Ukraine decades to catch-up to the Russians, and that only if some kind of highly improbable economic miracle happens. From: http://thesaker.is/russian-military-options-in-syria-and-the-ukraine/ __________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 13967 (20160816) __________ The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus. http://www.eset.com -- -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. 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