Vaiju Naravane | The Hindu | May 8, 2006
http://www.hindu.com/2006/05/08/stories/2006050803541000.htm
THERE IS an air of decay in France, a whiff of fin-de-reign. Rocked
by scandals, defeated in its attempts to introduce unpopular
reforms, torn apart by internecine quarrels, the Government led by
Dominique de Villepin is struggling to stay afloat, kept going only
by the Prime Minister's stubborn refusal to resign and his protector
President Jacques Chirac's equally baffling refusal to replace him.
Calls for a change of Prime Minister have grown this past week as
the details of an unpalatable dirty tricks scandal called l'affaire
Clearstream have begun to surface. What started off as low-level
intrigue in a power struggle for the top job in the French armaments
and aviation giant EADS has taken on the proportions of a full-blown
affair d'etat.
It involves a complex web of deliberately cooked-up, false
allegations against several prominent industrial and political
leaders accused of having pocketed hefty commissions during the sale
of French frigates to Taiwan in 1991. The name of Mr. de Villepin's
bête noire, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, figured on a long
list of alleged "recipients" said to have stashed money into
offshore accounts through a Luxemburg financial clearing house
called Clearstream.
Mr. de Villepin stands accused of ordering an enquiry, apparently at
President Chirac's behest, into alleged financial impropriety by his
main rival despite the fact that the list had been proven to be
bogus. Both President Chirac and Mr. de Villepin have stoutly denied
they ever asked for an investigation of Mr. Sarkozy. The Interior
Minister was never informed that he had been cleared of all
wrongdoing.
The upshot of all this has been a total paralysis of the Government
with the country driven further into uncertainty. Both Prime
Minister de Villepin and President Chirac have been mauled in the
process. Mr. Sarkozy, posing as the victim of an unmasked political
plot at the highest level of state, looks like the cat that ate the
cream. The Socialist Party, crippled by internal quarrels of its own
is scrambling to make political capital from this nth government
crisis. While on the sidelines, Jean Marie Le Pen and his extreme
Right, xenophobic cohorts are rubbing their hands in glee as France,
rudderless and gripped by the angst of an identity crisis and
immigration mania, moves inexorably to the Right.
Mr. de Villepin is the second most unpopular Prime Minister of
France's current Fifth Republic, just narrowly besting Edith
Cresson, the country's only woman head of government, who did a
brief stint under President Francois Mitterrand in 1991-92. Mr. de
Villepin's popularity rating hovers around 18 per cent, with those
questioned regularly describing him as cold, remote, arrogant, and
out of touch with the realities of the country. But the silver-
haired poet and former diplomat of patrician mien, is only
performing the designated functions of a Prime Minister under the
French Constitution: taking the blame for presidential failures,
becoming the scapegoat for the decade-long social, economic, and
political bankruptcy that has marked President Chirac's 12-year
term.
The past year has been particularly difficult for proud France.
Stubborn unemployment and economic stagnation have resulted in a
serious loss of confidence in the country's rulers, evident from the
fact that the governing conservative coalition led by Mr. Chirac's
UMP Party, has lost every single election local, regional, and
European since he was elected to his second term in 2002. The
apogee came last summer, when, almost exactly a year ago, on May 29,
2005, the French said a resounding "no" to the proposed European
constitution, inflicting a particularly heavy blow on the President
who had staked his all on the success of the referendum.
Six months later, the country saw the worst urban rioting it has
ever known as protests against ghettoisation and racist
discrimination by the disenfranchised youth of France's mainly
immigrant, impoverished suburbs became running battles between
heavily armed police and rock-throwing teens. That story remains one
of unfulfilled promises and the urban ghettos are once again in a
state of ferment, a spark could ignite another conflagration.
In February and March, the country saw mass street protests against
Mr. de Villepin's clumsy attempts to force through changes to the
labour laws that would have resulted in an extended trial period for
under-26 job seekers. The Government beat an ignominious retreat and
many expected Mr. Chirac would see reason and appoint a more
neutral, less abrasive, more acceptable figure to lead the
Government.
"How long will he survive?" "How long can he survive?" "When will he
go?" These are the three most frequently asked questions in France
today. Several writers, journalists, and political analysts have
attempted to pierce the secrets of the Chirac-Villepin relationship,
France's most enduring political mystery. Although a product of
France's top schools like his protégé (Institute of Political
Science and ENA or the National School of Administration), Mr.
Chirac, who has the gift of the common touch, lacks a certain
intellectual edge and verbal brilliance.
"He has been seduced by Villepin's stylistic elegance, his
articulation, quickness and oratory. That coupled with absolute
loyalty becomes a heady mix. Increasingly, over the years, Mr. de
Villepin, who has been behind almost every disastrous decision the
President has taken during his two terms, has become almost an
addiction for the President. It is de Villepin, not Chirac who calls
the shots," says Beatrice Guerry who has written extensively on the
duo for Le Monde.
The Chirac-Sarkozy rift
The two men also came together because of a falling out between
President Chirac and Mr. Sarkozy. It was assumed until the
presidential election of 1995 that the leadership mantle would be
passed on to Mr. Sarkozy. But that year Mr. Sarkozy sided with then
Prime Minister Eduard Balladur who challenged Mr. Chirac's claim to
be the sole candidate of the neo-Gaullists.
Jettisoning Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Chirac became closer to Mr. de Villepin
who acted as his diplomatic adviser, then became the head of his
office before being named Prime Minister following the EU
Constitution debacle last year. Mr. Sarkozy has been in the doghouse
ever since he openly declared his presidential ambitions and then
went on to commit the supreme act of les majésté by wresting control
of Mr. Chirac's UMP Party from under the President's nose. Mr. de
Villepin has presidential ambitions of his own and the time the two
men have spent in government together has been one of constant
bickering and backbiting.
Mr. Sarkozy is today probably the most popular politician on the
right. He has tightened his control over the party apparatus and
appears to have out-manoeuvred and trounced Mr. de Villepin who is
not an elected MP and has no power base to speak of before the
battle has even begun. Through his tough talk on immigration he had
tried to woo voters from Mr. Le Pen's right wing National Front and
his harsh, ill-thought-out, and irresponsible declarations about
suburban hotbeds of delinquency and crime have helped push the
national debate further right, so that over 30 per cent of the
French say they find the National Front's stand on immigration to
be "acceptable behaviour."
The fact remains, however, that France today appears to have a lame
duck government, with a whole year to go before presidential and
legislative elections are held. One of the ways out would be to
dissolve parliament and hold elections as soon as possible. With the
exception of Mr. Sarkozy and perhaps extreme Right formations led by
Mr. Le Pen or Philippe de Villiers, not many people would be in
favour of such a solution. The Socialists have at least five
presidential hopefuls and no programme. The communists and the
Greens appear to be slightly better prepared for a quick election,
but they too need time to get their candidates and programmes in
order.
The sensible proposal would be to replace Mr. de Villepin and
appoint his archrival instead. However, it is unclear if the canny
Mr. Sarkozy will accept the post. He has hinted he will leave
government to focus on his electoral campaign. He would not like to
accept what the French call a "poisoned gift" whereby, as head of
government, he would become the prime target of public ire and end
up frittering away his carefully built up popularity. The
possibility that he could throw back such an offer in Mr. Chirac's
face is one the latter would rather not contemplate.
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