An agonising time for the French Vaiju Naravane | The Hindu | April 03, 2007
http://www.hindu.com/2007/04/03/stories/2007040300651000.htm THE FRENCH have a new national sport: scanning weekly opinion polls on how the major presidential candidates are likely to fare, then making their own predictions. With the April 22 first round of the French elections just three weeks away, there is both anxiety and ferment in the air. Will the second round final on May 6 be between the former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Segolene Royal or will the centrist third man Francois Bayrou beat her to it? Who stands the best chance of winning the final prize and how must one vote in the first round to ensure the desired result? Christine Perez, a 42-year-old housewife, gets all her dinner guests to write down their predictions on bits of paper, which are then placed carefully in an envelope. "On 22nd April, I plan to have a large party with family and friends. We shall watch the results on TV and open the envelopes to see whose predictions were correct. The game is getting more sophisticated each week." The first time she took her little group's straw poll she asked them to write only the name of the candidate who would make it to the first and to the second rounds. "Now we are even talking of percentages, predicting who will score what both times. At first there were just us, the oldies in their late Fifties. Bit by bit the children joined in with their friends. We were 25 last week," she says. There are three main contenders for the top prize: Mr. Sarkozy, president of the ruling UMP, who recently resigned from his post as Interior Minister, Ms. Royal, the 53-year-old former Minister and President of the Poitou-Charantes region, and Francois Bayrou, the centrist gentleman farmer and former Education Minister who has been the late-blooming surprise of this poll. Close behind in fourth place is the National Front leader, Jean Marie Le-Pen, with his immigrant-go-home rhetoric. The leading pack is followed by a noisy, yapping and snapping gaggle from both Left and Right that is collectively expected to poll a little over 12 per cent of the vote. On the Left: Marie Georges Buffet of the Communist Party, the fresh-faced postman Olivier Besancenot of the Trotskyite LCR, Dominique Voynet of the Greens, Arlette Laguiller making her seventh bid for the presidency with the Workers' Struggle (LO) party, Jose Bove, the pipe-smoking anti- globalist farmer who opposes them all, and Gerard Schivardi (Workers Party) who favours re-nationalising industry and pulling out of Europe. On the Right are Frederic Nihous of the CPNT that defends hunting, fishing, and other rural interests, and the Catholic nationalist, Philippe de Villiers, who openly advocates expelling illegal immigrants. Many more voters With four million more voters registering to vote this year, it is clear that this election has gripped the imagination of the French. Youngsters, many of them of immigrant origin, have been persuaded to register and rarely have candidates in a presidential poll gone to such extremes to prove they are the precursors of change. This election is singular also because, for the first time, a woman candidate has a serious chance of winning the country's top office. Not that French voters are about to stage a revolution at the ballot box, but the next President will be the person who best succeeds in addressing a yearning for change. After years of high unemployment that has only recently come down to 8.6 per cent and a huge debt (equivalent to 64.6 per cent of GDP) that is calling into question the future of the welfare state, the French are taking a dim view of the state and those that rule them. Their confidence in politics and politicians is at rock bottom and the country is desperately looking for a convincing candidate to replace Jacques Chirac whose 10 years at the helm have been described as "a period of immobilism and missed opportunities." The campaign is also giving way to a lot of soul-searching over France's place in the world as factories close and jobs are lost in the new globalised economy and the future of Europe after the French said `no' to the EU constitution in a 2005 referendum. Despite a big push by candidates to show they can lead a turnaround, polls show at least one in three voters is still undecided, less than a month before the first round of voting on April 22. Mr. Sarkozy is seen as too authoritarian, despotic, repressive, and rampantly pro-free market for the traditional Right to feel entirely easy with him. Ms. Royal has, on the other hand, raised questions among traditional left-wing supporters about her competence, her management style and skills, and her knowledge of foreign policy. Hence the emergence of Mr. Bayrou, the third man who has sneaked up from behind to make a place for himself amongst the top three. The Perez circle of family and friends does not hide its left-wing leanings. Normally they would have voted for one or other candidate from the Left and the choice is wide. This time round, however, they are cautious, not wishing a repeat of 2002, when a fragmented left- wing vote prevented the Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin, from getting into the second round. "I remember that day, almost weeping when I had to vote for Chirac in order to defeat that insufferable hate monger Jean Marie Le Pen," explains Christine's paediatrician daughter Florence. "I had opted for Arlette Laguiller in the first round. I have never stopped blaming myself. So, we must not make that mistake twice." Almost all polls indicate that if Mr. Bayrou squeaks into the second round, he will almost certainly beat Mr. Sarkozy to win the presidency. In a match between Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Royal, the odds are even. "I am absolutely uncertain as to what I shall do. Do I vote Segolene in the first round and take the chance that she loses to Sarkozy or do I try to push Bayrou into the second round because my ultimate fear is a Sarkozy victory? It is a hard choice." Mr. Bayrou, an earnest looking man with a shock of receding curly hair and spaniel eyes, had been a sober, plain-talking candidate. He has not made rash promises but told the French that the national debt is too high and must be reduced; that some belt tightening will be de rigeur if the nation is to move out of its current economically boxed-in situation. Sensing the danger he poses, both Ms. Royal and Mr. Sarkozy have multiplied their attacks against him. Ms. Royal called him a "right-wing impostor" whose party the UDF participated in the very government he so vehemently decried. Mr. Sarkozy says a Bayrou presidency will "lead to paralysis" and a repeat of the problems faced by France during the ill-fated Fourth Republic where political instability was rife. "Since the Second World War, France has had a single political fault line running through it, splitting the country into opposing Left and Right wing camps. Through almost all the major crises that have hit France in modern times, the country has been divided along ideological lines. Of course there are the extremes, but they are the extremes on the Left and the Right. A major transformation is under way and if Francois Bayrou succeeds, the face of France will be changed forever. Will it be a good change? It's difficult to say," remarks political scientist Gilles Mayer. Mr. Bayrou has promised a government of national reconciliation. He says if he becomes President he will create a new centrist party "that would be open to all the forces of moderation and change from the Left as well as the Right," to fight the legislative election that follows. Says Christine Perez: "I don't want to find myself in a large party with right wingers. If Bayrou is elected that will be the end of the Socialist Party in its present form. Who knows what kind of instability that will arise! Perhaps I should set my hesitations aside and vote for Segolene. I don't like her, but I think the time has come to hold my nose and cast my ballot in the name of my political family. But then I think of what will happen if Sarkozy is elected more repressive laws, more policemen on the streets, more cronyism and authoritarianism and I ask myself: `Would it be better to vote for Bayrou in the first round?' I am undecided. I don't know what to do and it's giving me sleepless nights." She is not the only one chewing on her nails. Polls show that almost half the French population is vacillating and is yet to make up its mind in what is proving to be the most exciting, interesting, novel, and nerve-racking election in decades.
