New phase VLADIMIR RADYUHIN | Frontline | Vol. 25, Issue 01, Jan. 05-18, 2008
http://www.frontlineonnet.com/stories/20080118503104600.htm RUSSIA'S main intrigue of 2007 (who will succeed President Vladimir Putin when he steps down next year?) was finally resolved before the year's end when Putin declared on December 10 that he fully supported the candidacy of his close ally, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Having served two four-year terms, Putin cannot run again in the presidential election scheduled for March 17. Given Putin's overwhelming popularity, which exceeds 80 per cent, the candidate favoured by him is virtually assured of victory, pollsters say. Putin had kept everybody guessing about his choice until after the presidential campaign was officially declared open in early December. Shortly after his nomination on December 10, Medvedev was catapulted to the top of national polls. He is projected to win the election in the first round, getting close to 60 per cent of the vote. What makes Medvedev different from other front-runners in the presidential race, such as Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, 66, and First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, 55, is his age and personal chemistry with Putin. At 42, Medvedev will be the youngest leader Russia has ever had in its modern history. Putin was 47 when he became President, as was, incidentally, Vladimir Lenin when he led the triumphant October Revolution of 1917. Medvedev is more than Putin's devout disciple and trusted ally. Kremlin insiders say the two have a father-son relationship (Medvedev is 13 years younger than Putin). They have known each other for 17 years, since the time both worked in St. Petersburg's mayoral office. Medvedev followed Putin to Moscow and became his right-hand man in charge of the Kremlin administration. In 2005, Putin appointed him as First Deputy Prime Minister overseeing key social programmes. Medvedev's elevation brings a post-Soviet generation to power in Russia for the first time. He has a completely different background from Putin's other Soviet-trained associates. Medvedev is a lawyer, educated during the era of Mikhail Gorbachev's liberal reform policies. He belongs to the Kremlin's liberal wing. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2007, where Medvedev made his international debut, he asserted his credo as a liberal reformer and moderate nationalist. "We are well aware that no undemocratic state has ever become truly prosperous for one simple reason: freedom is better than non-freedom," he said in English. But Medvedev is different from the Boris Yeltsin-era liberals who made Russia toe the Western line. "In the 21st century we see Russia as a developed country with a strong economy and as a reliable trade and political partner," he told the Davos forum, adding a stern warning to the West: "We aren't trying to push anyone to love Russia, but we won't allow anyone to hurt Russia." After his nomination, Medvedev asked Putin to serve as Prime Minister in his new administration and Putin accepted the invitation. It remains to be seen whether Putin's acceptance is an election tactic to boost Medvedev's popularity and reassure the Russian elite that there will be no power shake-ups and re-carving of privatised assets, or whether Putin will actually become Prime Minister. The President in Russia is vested with far more powers than the Prime Minister and it is difficult to imagine Putin taking a junior role under Medvedev. At the same time, Putin has denied any plans to weaken the institution of President and shift the centre of authority to the office of prime minister. If Putin accepts the offer of Prime Ministership it will not make Medvedev a place holder to facilitate Putin's return to the Kremlin in 2012 or earlier, as Western analysts have suggested. Putin will be Medvedev's guru, helping him firm up his grip on power. Medvedev has gained sufficient knowledge of domestic and international economics and perfected his managerial skills as Chairman of the Board of Russia's natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, for seven years and as the coordinator of federal programmes in the spheres of health, education, housing and agriculture. But his experience of international politics is limited. Also, it will take him time and effort to assert his authority over the so-called "siloviki", a powerful clan of acting and former security officials who reportedly were opposed to Putin's choice of a liberal successor. "Siloviki" have gained key positions in Russia under Putin who worked for many years in the Soviet KGB secret service. According to some estimates, "siloviki" filled up to 70 per cent of the jobs in the federal and regional governments as Putin relied on security services to pull Russia together after the chaotic meltdown during Yeltsin's two presidential terms. Irrespective of what role Putin decides to play after the presidential poll, his close association with Medvedev is bound to continue. Putin said he felt "great responsibility" to the people who had trust in him and his promises. "There are still many more unresolved problems," he said addressing United Russia's congress, which nominated Medvedev as the party's presidential candidate. "We all, myself included, must roll up [our] sleeves and work hard." In 2000, Putin inherited from Yeltsin a country with a crumbling economy, an Islamist insurgency in breakaway Chechnya, unruly regions and a disintegrating state apparatus manipulated by predatory oligarchs. In 2008, he is handing to his successor a resurgent nation with a booming economy, a restored global role and a stable political situation. Time magazine grudgingly recognised Putin's role in returning Russia from chaos to "the table of world powers" by choosing him "Person of the Year" for 2007. Putin's eight-year-long presidency has prepared Russia for the next stage of modernisation. The new President will have all the necessary economic and political instruments to accomplish this task. Over the past eight years the Russian economy has grown in value sevenfold to almost $1.4 trillion; the country has the world's third largest currency reserves; and it has accumulated enough oil revenue funds to boost investment spending from about $160 billion in 2006 to almost $440 billion by 2010. The Russian government under Medvedev will enjoy strong parliamentary support. In a parliamentary election in early December, United Russia, the main pro-Kremlin party, won 70 per cent of the seats, largely thanks to having Putin at the top of its candidates list. Medvedev has said that his task as President will be to take Russia along Putin's "strategic course" of building a socially oriented and diversified economy with greater wealth distribution and stronger democratic institutions. Medvedev is Russia's best hope for improving relations with the West and advancing Putin's strategic goal of integration with Europe. Medvedev, with his liberal views, English language speaking skills, easy-going manners and no links with security services, is well positioned to win greater acceptance in the West than Putin, who has been treated by Western leaders as an authoritarian ruler with a secret service background. For India, Medvedev's ascendancy is a challenge. The new generation of Russian leaders is highly pragmatic, does not cherish memories of the Indo-Soviet friendship, and believes in Russia's European identity. If India's value to Russia as a trade and economic partner remains as low as it is today, New Delhi risks fading away from the Russian radar screens.
