When predicting whether a keyword will trigger one of your ads, you
should also evaluate the group status and campaign status, when these
are not active and enabled, your keyword is not shown.
But, your task is almost impossible. For instance, a keyword will not
be shown when the campagin runs out of its daily budget. So you should
also look at the total costs of the day in the campaign. Unfortunately
it is not a strict limit, Google allows to overrun the daily budget by
10%, as long as the total cost of the month does not exceed the daily
budget times the days in the month. Further, your account may be
deactivated by Google (eg. because of payment problems), and you
cannot determine the account status through API.

BTW: You mention the first page bid. That has nothing to do with the
state of a keyword. It just tells you whether your ad will be shown on
the first page, or on a later page. If you want to ensure that your ad
is shown on the first page, you should either contact all competitors
of that word, or you should enter a bidding war.

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