You are right about what the first page bid tells you, but I disagree that 
this is "nothing to do with the state of a keyword".  I'm interested in 
knowing when a keyword is languishing, and the first page gets by far the 
majority of impressions.  I'm not necessarily trying to ensure that the 
keyword is shown on the first page, but I am interested in knowing when it 
is not, so that I can make a smart decision about whether to raise the bid.

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