I actually have faith and trust in the WHO, CDC and local and state health
departments. This is the primary reason for them existing and they all have
something to prove. It is a big puzzle right now but we have the tools to
figure out where it is coming from, how it is transmitted and how to control
it. We also have tools to produce a vaccine assuming it cannot mutate faster
than we can vaccinate.
I hope those that get it are immune to it afterwards.
From: Ken Hohhof
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 9:27 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Corollary: we need to test lots of people, and get the infected ones to stay
away from nursing homes, cruise ships and unprotected healthcare workers.
And given that kids seem to either not get it, or not get serious symptoms, I
wonder if they are silently transmitting the virus.
It does seem so far like transmission within families is almost 100%. Not sure
how that would change if people were tested and then practiced recommended
methods to avoid transmitting the virus. Or if it’s too late by the time they
know, at least for transmission within families in the same house.
The biggest puzzle for me is why the Chinese seem to be having such great
success now controlling the new case rate. It can’t JUST be the lockdown.
It’s almost like they have a lot of people that have recovered without knowing
they had it and are now immune, and that is blocking the virus from spreading
so fast through a population that now has a certain percent are immune. I
believe I saw something about it stops when either 50% of the population has
recovered and is immune, or a vaccine becomes available. I don’t know if the
50% number was just an example or a real number, but I think the idea was that
an epidemic or pandemic needs a certain percentage of the population to be
susceptible to sustain its spread. The other way it stops is if it is so
deadly that it kills its host before it can spread. I guess SARS was kind of
that way. Plus with SARS you weren’t very contagious before you showed
symptoms. Fewer Typhoid Marys walking around. Or taking Amtrak.
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 10:01 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Interesting tidbit from the NYT this morning:
Adam Kucharski, who studies the math behind outbreaks for the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, recently talked to The Times about how people
should look at the coronavirus data.
One signal Dr. Kucharski looks for is when the first case in an area is a
death: “That suggests you had a lot of community transmission already,” he said.
“Suppose the fatality rate for cases is about 1 percent, which is plausible,”
he explained. “If you’ve got a death, then that person probably became ill
about three weeks ago. That means you probably had about 100 cases three weeks
ago, in reality.”
“In that subsequent three weeks,” he added, “that number could well have
doubled, then doubled, then doubled again. So you’re currently looking at 500
cases, maybe 1,000 cases.”
My corollary on the above is that if we have that many cases in a community,
then a lot of people are running around with no clue that they have been
infected.
bp<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/9/2020 6:16 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
We have moved from containment to community mitigation, where the goal is to
flatten the curve and avoid overloading the healthcare system, and wait for a
vaccine (no, not imminent). Messaging has not quite caught up with this
reality, but if you listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci you can figure it out.
Those of you going to WISPAmerica, stay safe. Wash your hands, and use the
hand sanitizer that I assume will be everywhere. Maybe take a thermometer.
And Steve, I’m shocked, shocked to hear that your town has Amtrak. Didn’t
you just get indoor plumbing last year?
From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 7:40 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group mailto:af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Well, my worst nightmare has hit. Turns out a lady from here in town was in
the car behind this lady and we "exposed"
So that equates to "its here in town now"
I already talked to the OB about this. The wifes having the baby cut from her
gut on the 18th which has a 3 day recovery in thos hospital. In the mean time
everybody and their brother is going to be comimg out to the hospital because
theyre certain they have the deaths. Theyre bringing every germ known to man
into one place. Hospitals are already infection centers, dirty filthy cesspools
of disease.
The baby technically only has to be there 24 hours, and im taking it home.
Wifes on her own at the death center. Herpes will be riding bareback on cold
viruses after inbreeding with mersa and riding through a puddle of c. Diff.
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020, 6:46 AM Forrest Christian (List Account)
<li...@packetflux.com> wrote:
Let me see If I can agree with what I think you're saying:
1) Currently we're pre-selecting for people who are in a hospital with
something looking like nCov and which got tested. We don't currently know how
many people have it but didn't get tested and as such isn't counted as an
infected person. As we improve our testing ability, we'll find more cases
which aren't hospitalization (and possible subsequent death) cases, pushing the
rate lower.
2) Because we are testing more we'll also be able to tell that some of the
cases that we aren't attributing to nCov are actually nCov cases, pushing the
rate higher.
Does that describe what you're saying?
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 5:09 AM Matt Hoppes
<mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:
More people being tested means two things:
1) the death rate goes way down
2) the death rate goes way up, because we currently have folks dying of
pneumonia that wasn’t the flu.
> On Mar 8, 2020, at 11:30 PM, Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com> wrote:
>
> I'm going to Disney World this coming Friday. Went into town this
> weekend, stopped by 5-6 stores including lunch out. I have an
> employee going on a cruise next week.
>
> We have had two confirmed cases in our county.
>
> It is what it is, I'm not going to hide under a rock. Let's keep this
> in perspective. Currently the total infection rate per 1 million in
> the US is 1.6. S. Korea has the highest infection rate at 144 per
> million. That infection rate not death rate. Death rate is even
> lower.
>
> If you are under 50 years old, your death chances are under 0.5%.
>
> It is going to go up. Now that both Quest Labs and Labcorp are both
> doing testing, more people will get tested. More people getting
> tested, means more people being counted as a case.
>
> --
> Best regards,
> Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
>
> Myakka Technologies, Inc.
> www.Myakka.com
>
> ------
>
> Sunday, March 8, 2020, 9:51:23 PM, you wrote:
>
> MH> You’re really making light of this serious situation aren’t you?
>
>>> On Mar 8, 2020, at 9:26 PM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
wrote:
>>>
>>> --000000000000216fbc05a061e421
>>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
>>>
>>> welp, guys, was nice knowing you. An amtrak train had apparently
stopped in
>>> my town with an infected passenger. Thats the end of that. Already
took the
>>> family out to the garden and put them down, now I just wait for sweet
death.
>>>
>>>> On Fri, Mar 6, 2020 at 3:53 PM James Howard <ja...@litewire.net>
wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Might want to switch to peeing on them to avoid spreading anything.
>>>> According to the news stories droplets of saliva and rubbing your
eyes are
>>>> the ways it gets spread. Urine might give you even more dominance
than
>>>> spit anyway.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* A
>
>
> --
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> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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