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From: Mathew Howard
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 10:00 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Perhaps they just immediately bury anybody that's infected...
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 10:52 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
I find it hard to believe that North Korea is missing out on all the fun.
From: Mathew Howard
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 9:47 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
It's interesting that the one country that is testing lots of people (South
Korea) has had a death rate well under 1%.
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 10:27 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com> wrote:
Corollary: we need to test lots of people, and get the infected ones to
stay away from nursing homes, cruise ships and unprotected healthcare workers.
And given that kids seem to either not get it, or not get serious symptoms,
I wonder if they are silently transmitting the virus.
It does seem so far like transmission within families is almost 100%. Not
sure how that would change if people were tested and then practiced recommended
methods to avoid transmitting the virus. Or if it’s too late by the time they
know, at least for transmission within families in the same house.
The biggest puzzle for me is why the Chinese seem to be having such great
success now controlling the new case rate. It can’t JUST be the lockdown.
It’s almost like they have a lot of people that have recovered without knowing
they had it and are now immune, and that is blocking the virus from spreading
so fast through a population that now has a certain percent are immune. I
believe I saw something about it stops when either 50% of the population has
recovered and is immune, or a vaccine becomes available. I don’t know if the
50% number was just an example or a real number, but I think the idea was that
an epidemic or pandemic needs a certain percentage of the population to be
susceptible to sustain its spread. The other way it stops is if it is so
deadly that it kills its host before it can spread. I guess SARS was kind of
that way. Plus with SARS you weren’t very contagious before you showed
symptoms. Fewer Typhoid Marys walking around. Or taking Amtrak.
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 10:01 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Interesting tidbit from the NYT this morning:
Adam Kucharski, who studies the math behind outbreaks for the London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, recently talked to The Times about how people
should look at the coronavirus data.
One signal Dr. Kucharski looks for is when the first case in an area is a
death: “That suggests you had a lot of community transmission already,” he said.
“Suppose the fatality rate for cases is about 1 percent, which is
plausible,” he explained. “If you’ve got a death, then that person probably
became ill about three weeks ago. That means you probably had about 100 cases
three weeks ago, in reality.”
“In that subsequent three weeks,” he added, “that number could well have
doubled, then doubled, then doubled again. So you’re currently looking at 500
cases, maybe 1,000 cases.”
My corollary on the above is that if we have that many cases in a
community, then a lot of people are running around with no clue that they have
been infected.
bp<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/9/2020 6:16 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
We have moved from containment to community mitigation, where the goal is
to flatten the curve and avoid overloading the healthcare system, and wait for
a vaccine (no, not imminent). Messaging has not quite caught up with this
reality, but if you listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci you can figure it out.
Those of you going to WISPAmerica, stay safe. Wash your hands, and use
the hand sanitizer that I assume will be everywhere. Maybe take a thermometer.
And Steve, I’m shocked, shocked to hear that your town has Amtrak.
Didn’t you just get indoor plumbing last year?
From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Monday, March 9, 2020 7:40 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group mailto:af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
Well, my worst nightmare has hit. Turns out a lady from here in town was
in the car behind this lady and we "exposed"
So that equates to "its here in town now"
I already talked to the OB about this. The wifes having the baby cut from
her gut on the 18th which has a 3 day recovery in thos hospital. In the mean
time everybody and their brother is going to be comimg out to the hospital
because theyre certain they have the deaths. Theyre bringing every germ known
to man into one place. Hospitals are already infection centers, dirty filthy
cesspools of disease.
The baby technically only has to be there 24 hours, and im taking it
home. Wifes on her own at the death center. Herpes will be riding bareback on
cold viruses after inbreeding with mersa and riding through a puddle of c. Diff.
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020, 6:46 AM Forrest Christian (List Account)
<li...@packetflux.com> wrote:
Let me see If I can agree with what I think you're saying:
1) Currently we're pre-selecting for people who are in a hospital with
something looking like nCov and which got tested. We don't currently know how
many people have it but didn't get tested and as such isn't counted as an
infected person. As we improve our testing ability, we'll find more cases
which aren't hospitalization (and possible subsequent death) cases, pushing the
rate lower.
2) Because we are testing more we'll also be able to tell that some of
the cases that we aren't attributing to nCov are actually nCov cases, pushing
the rate higher.
Does that describe what you're saying?
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 5:09 AM Matt Hoppes
<mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:
More people being tested means two things:
1) the death rate goes way down
2) the death rate goes way up, because we currently have folks dying
of pneumonia that wasn’t the flu.
> On Mar 8, 2020, at 11:30 PM, Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com> wrote:
>
> I'm going to Disney World this coming Friday. Went into town
this
> weekend, stopped by 5-6 stores including lunch out. I have an
> employee going on a cruise next week.
>
> We have had two confirmed cases in our county.
>
> It is what it is, I'm not going to hide under a rock. Let's keep
this
> in perspective. Currently the total infection rate per 1 million
in
> the US is 1.6. S. Korea has the highest infection rate at 144
per
> million. That infection rate not death rate. Death rate is
even
> lower.
>
> If you are under 50 years old, your death chances are under 0.5%.
>
> It is going to go up. Now that both Quest Labs and Labcorp are
both
> doing testing, more people will get tested. More people
getting
> tested, means more people being counted as a case.
>
> --
> Best regards,
> Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
>
> Myakka Technologies, Inc.
> www.Myakka.com
>
> ------
>
> Sunday, March 8, 2020, 9:51:23 PM, you wrote:
>
> MH> You’re really making light of this serious situation aren’t you?
>
>>> On Mar 8, 2020, at 9:26 PM, Steve Jones
<thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> --000000000000216fbc05a061e421
>>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
>>>
>>> welp, guys, was nice knowing you. An amtrak train had apparently
stopped in
>>> my town with an infected passenger. Thats the end of that.
Already took the
>>> family out to the garden and put them down, now I just wait for
sweet death.
>>>
>>>> On Fri, Mar 6, 2020 at 3:53 PM James Howard <ja...@litewire.net>
wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Might want to switch to peeing on them to avoid spreading
anything.
>>>> According to the news stories droplets of saliva and rubbing
your eyes are
>>>> the ways it gets spread. Urine might give you even more
dominance than
>>>> spit anyway.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* A
>
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
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