Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics

Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:12:09 -0700

Several troubling aspects to this. The percent of false negatives and false positives seems extremely high. And asymptomatic carriers do not count as a "case".

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/28/2020 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are.

Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland.  They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.  This is possible because they don't have a huge population.  ;-)


Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate.

While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places.

This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections.  I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing.  But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu).  That a long time to spread the love around.

On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. 
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
 
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
 

This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
This is an interesting article:
 
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. 
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying.  We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. 

--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com


--

Harold Bledsoe


-- 
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com

Reply via email to