They have rushed vaccines into human trials in Seattle with people
volunteering to be test subjects. Probably did not get presented with
the results of some of the early vaccines results for the original SARS
when the testees were exposed and had way worse results that the control
group...
On 3/28/20 2:14 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify
people who had it, recovered, and may be immune. This may be a key to
determining who can safely go back to work.
Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes.
Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people
who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test
negative. I suspect the current measures are not very effective
stopping spread within families.
New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment.
I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than
18 months. You’d think there could be some hope that could be
accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted.
Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity.
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Harold Bledsoe
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the
denominator of how many infections there actually are.
Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.
This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-)
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at
the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization
rate.
While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying,
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen
all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most
places.
This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much
higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual
fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing
moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms
that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu).
That a long time to spread the love around.
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
*From:*Bill Prince
*Sent:*Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
*To:*af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is another perspective referred to in this article called
"Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after
the initial peak is over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into
that cycle.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
--
Harold Bledsoe
--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
