477’s in our area are almost entirely works of fiction, sometime fantastic ones, like coverage where there are no residences, businesses, roads, or zero presence by the business filing the 477.
I think the relevant term is addressable market. There will always be opportunities which don’t pay, customers who aren’t interested but maybe should be, etc. Those will continue to be outside of the addressable market. > On Apr 15, 2020, at 12:05 PM, Brian Webster <i...@wirelessmapping.com> wrote: > > As Ken mentioned there are 2 different numbers to talk about. YOUR market > capture rate and total broadband adoption rate for a given area. In the > broadband mapping program we spent a lot of time on this topic. The best way > I can suggest you look at this is to first find the latest data on broadband > adoption for your state. That number should be typically between 70 and 80 > percent. Meaning that of all households in a state, that percentage is > subscribed to some sort of broadband. It is a total aggregate number, not any > particular carrier. The next step then would be to figure out the number of > homes your network passes or can serve (you do know that don’t you?). The > further segment that number to the homes you are the only option and those > that you have competition. > > For the homes passed where you are the only option, you should be able to > achieve the state adoption rate as your market capture percentage. If not you > may want to consider spending time on your marketing and product placement > efforts. The fish don’t just jump in to the boat. You do have some > competition in the form of cellular and satellite but with proper advertising > and marketing efforts you should be the major player. > > For the homes you pass where there is competition, figuring out a good > penetration rate will be difficult depending on who the competition is. If > it’s only DSL you should be able to garner a higher take rate IF you are > doing a good job on marketing. Competing against the major cable companies, > they do a decent job so that’s real competition. Smaller providers will be a > mixed bag depending on how well those companies are run and their product > offerings. > > The biggest and first thing that needs to be known if your total homes > passed. You can get a good idea of that by adding up the household counts for > the census blocks you show as served in your FCC form 477 filing because > those are supposed to show where you can serve, not just the ones your > billing platform shows where you have customers. You have been filing your > 477 reports haven’t you? > > While those pain in the rump programs are required, you can take those > efforts and put the results to uses that do help with your business. > > If you have been filing the form 477, I can even pull the latest FCC form 477 > data and tell you which blocks you filed have other competition broadband in > them. This makes it easy to tally your homes passed both with and without > competition. Then you can use those results and compare them against your > customer data (and map those) to investigate the areas in your network where > your market rate seems to be weak and could benefit from improved efforts. Do > more to maximize those markets you have already invested in. > > Thank you, > Brian Webster > www.wirelessmapping.com <http://www.wirelessmapping.com/> > > From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Lewis Bergman > Sent: Wednesday, April 15, 2020 2:02 PM > To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Market saturation > > Thats great. That shows the variability between markets. > > On Wed, Apr 15, 2020 at 12:25 PM Mark Radabaugh <m...@amplex.net > <mailto:m...@amplex.net>> wrote: >> I’m sticking with my 85% number, and I have the customers and data to prove >> it. >> >> Mark >> >> > On Apr 15, 2020, at 9:48 AM, Matt Hoppes >> > <mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net >> > <mailto:mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net>> wrote: >> > >> > That also is what we have found. >> > >> > I was actually going to say 35% take rate -- but since I've gotten shot >> > down on previous e-mails where I've sent out "crazy" and "ridiculous" >> > statistics, I figured I'd send the higher end of the spectrum :) >> > >> > On 4/15/20 9:12 AM, Lewis Bergman wrote: >> >> I second the 50% rate. Probably 35% if you have some other competition >> >> other than satellite. At either one of those rates, you should have >> >> enough neighbor referrals that anything other than a yard sign would be a >> >> waste. >> >> On Wed, Apr 15, 2020 at 6:36 AM Matt Hoppes >> >> <mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net >> >> <mailto:mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> >> >> <mailto:mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net >> >> <mailto:mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net>>> wrote: >> >> We see about 50% take rate even when we are the only option. >> >> > On Apr 15, 2020, at 6:26 AM, Mark Radabaugh <m...@amplex.net >> >> <mailto:m...@amplex.net> >> >> <mailto:m...@amplex.net <mailto:m...@amplex.net>>> wrote: >> >> > >> >> > I’m thinking around 85%. Some depends on your market. We have >> >> a few areas where I think about 5% of the housing is abandoned. >> >> Take another 10% that are not interested. There is an older >> >> population that just isn’t interested or that their needs are met by >> >> iPads and cellular. >> >> > >> >> > That 85% number seems consistent for us on both wireless and >> >> fiber routes. >> >> > >> >> > Mark >> >> > >> >> >> On Apr 15, 2020, at 12:29 AM, Steve Jones >> >> <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> >> >> <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>>> >> >> wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> What percentage of rural customers would you all consider >> >> saturated? >> >> >> >> >> >> I have access to some new datasets and it disturbing. It's good >> >> disturbing, but unanticipated. >> >> >> >> >> >> May be bad. >> >> >> >> >> >> Is there a rural percentage of capture that is considered >> >> saturated as a standard? 100 percent is what we all want. But there >> >> are customers who dont want, or simply cannot afford internet >> >> access. There has to be some numbers out there. >> >> >> >> >> >> I doubt government numbers count, since government is dumb. >> >> Where does a simpleton such as myself go to find out what is >> >> considered saturated? >> >> >> >> >> >> Say I touch 1000 households. What is the percentage of capture >> >> that marketing is no longer recommended? If I have 500 of them, I'd >> >> think that's pretty good, maybe even saturated between lack of need, >> >> want, or ability and offset by whatever percentage per terrain would >> >> be co sided unservicable. I'd assume my midwest flatlands >> >> unservicable would be different than Johnny paychecks Arkansas hills >> >> unservicable. >> >> >> >> >> >> These numbers have to be somewhere >> >> >> -- >> >> >> AF mailing list >> >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com >> >> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>> >> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> <http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com> >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > -- >> >> > AF mailing list >> >> > AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com >> >> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>> >> >> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> <http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com> >> >> -- AF mailing list >> >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com >> >> <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>> >> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> >> <http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com> >> >> -- >> >> Lewis Bergman >> >> 325-439-0533 Cell >> > >> > -- >> > AF mailing list >> > AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> > <http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com> >> >> >> -- >> AF mailing list >> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> <http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com> > > > -- > Lewis Bergman > 325-439-0533 Cell > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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