After the fact, large numbers of antibody testing will tell the tale.
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 9:23 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is the
asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is that the
symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One headline
that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people
listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have been
reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.
I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation at
present:
“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the coronavirus in San
Clara County or California or the U.S. That ship has sailed. Even
self-reporting would be inherently inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara
County Supervisor Dave Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history
of it is by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners all over
the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been signing death certificates
as strokes or heart attacks or natural causes.”
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this
like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER
epidemics. It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
I was agreeing with him up until that point.
Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of
the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself )
which is BAD Science. It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop
from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop! The
people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms. This may
under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT
science.
He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of
the number of cases in his region. Gee wilikers I want to hear the same
information done from actual scientific method testing. Then he says
"hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"... Um we are over 54K
deaths and the curve ISN'T going down. It seems to have leveled off but is
still going strong. In basically 1.5 months. We are 1/4+ the way to the
model with social distancing. Without social distancing we could start making
a gain on the other models. I think this is yet another example of
someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social
distancing and says it's overreaction. And then he talks about 0.1% of death
and then 92% recovery. Um doesn't that sound like 8% who DON'T recover? And
if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the population in a much shorter time from
not social distancing, what happens to the hospitals? Sorry but this is an
"agenda" again...
IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!
On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g
From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in
“spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.
https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry
On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
wrote:
That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb, political
correctness. This is serious business, and housewives get nervous. A nervous
housewife can make a whole lot of bad decisions. Those bad decisions have real
world consequenses that dont care about being politically correct. You can say
house person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in person, indicating
Male, if a gender actually exists. And I guess house indicates some level of
financial status.
Would you feel better about "dwelling being".
"Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that make you
feel better?
Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is suffering
severe post partum depression in the middle of the end of the world, looking
for templates on making masks, so i dont come home to the real world
consequense of my babies drown in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing
that would be PC or not.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com> wrote:
“keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”
Really? You’re aware this is 2020, right?
On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
wrote:
You asked
What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening with result
driven response. (Without rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases over
the weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the increase
is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than testing. That's just a
matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you can be infected, and test
negative if you were recently infected, you can get infected at a test site.
You can test positive from an environmental exposure without having actually
caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs.
Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely hotspots. I'd
personally put the bulk of the funding into tracing. Use every bit of data
volunteered. Particularly request the tracking data from mobile devices. If its
volunteered, you have a map. If they dont, well, you work with what you have.
"Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to effectively test
would be real time monitoring. Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be
feasible.
The governors each now have in their possession the location of every
single test processing facility in the nation. So what little relevance testing
actually plays in management is their responsibility to delegate coordination.
So it's a moot issue.
Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub scrub (to be
honest, I dont understand any public venue that wouldn't be surface
decontaminating once ever 24 hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of
killitol level disinfectants)
I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it were mandatory
rated filtration masks that would be different.
But there isnt a production capacity for that on the entire planet.
But since it makes people feel like they're doing something, I'm all for it.
Placebo is actually a powerful medication for much of what ails society. Plus
the homemade masks are keeping housewives occupied and less nervous. That
actually matters.
Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated closure.
Example being a county here in illinois that has a processor who has over 20
employees infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy and
constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public health
risk. That falls under the latter and should be closed pending decontamination.
A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate public health
risk should require medical screening of all staff/administration prior to
resuming activities. There is no shortage of available healthcare practitioners
right now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once again, the focus
should be on tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the above
mentioned case has probably long since recovered. Tracing is where they are
identified, as theyll test negative now. Cases like this are where antibody
testing should be prioritized, assuming there is consent.
Tracing
The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies probable
contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, tracing
tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily submitted.
Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a whole lot quicker to
clear a location of all tracing resources are made readily available. Call it
extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a tool.
Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned to have been
in the same place, it doesnt need to necessarily be shut down. But the
threshold must be clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly defined.
That has a whole lot to do with the defiance. Selling seeds being a prime
example, at no point did illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned them off
and facebook images went nuts. This is literally the same thing that cause the
rapid spread in the US, images of empty shelves. Many of the people protesting
still dont know that nurseries and greenhouses were specifically deemed
essential last week, but that's why they're there. Clearly define everything,
on the state and county websites. Accurate information is critical. That and
tracing.
Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a region
declines, shut it down. If a region does well, progress the stages. Exactly as
the feds recommend.
Define and justify every single essential and non essential industry.
With a mandatory state clarification within 24 hours of a designation request.
Justify being key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be fluid
and ongoing.
Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs
clarification. As it reads, I cant take my family fishing in illinois because
the designated limit is 2. This will get police in situations with bad outcomes
because nobody bothered to clarify.
If a region's medical resources are verifiably and documented to be
taxed to a predefined and clearly defined level, then ease back on the stages,
all the way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion arent
the metrics. The staffing levels and documented patient loads define that.
I can continue
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski <ch...@macenski.com>
wrote:
Would you please articulate specifically "what is right" in this
situation? I am asking for your non-political opinion of the most constructive
way forward.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones
<thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
I sit back and watch as people contradict their own statements.
"Its going to be here like this for years" "tests are growing, as is the
number" "it's been here longer than we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh
testing" "it's going to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact"
The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer liked. "Its
only anecdotal" "a tiny group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard
and this drug must be banned"
I live in a state where our governor is in a pissing contest with
the White House, but doing pretty much what the White House recommends, with
the exception of looking at things by region. We only have two regions,
chicago, and people who voted for the current president at 1600. So the whole
of downstate will be punished for not voting the right way. When asked about
the data, for the "science" behind this, we were told the state doesnt own the
data, so we cant see it.
I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the fosters is utterly
destroyed right now. Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3
days ago at 15. He had returned home, but went back into the system during this
(our state, in its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the foster support
system, non essential and all) he couldn't come back to her because she is at
capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug trial. He had been thriving. The
governors orders didnt allow for him to get access to the trial resources, so
he lost his trial spot, as is the nature of trials. There were no resources
available to get him into a linear treatment. 3 days ago he succumbed to the
complication. While anecdotal, this is exactly what the cure being worse than
the disease looks like. Granted, the speed at which he declined from thriving
to dead indicates underlying issues, the chicago emperors orders made certain
there were no resources. Right now, thanks to the emperors orders, there are
approximately zero resources available to the foster families. Anticipate a
whole lot of negative outcomes.
Point is, everybody is more concerned about proving how wrong
their political enemy is, that nobody is even actually looking for what is
right.
Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this will, like all
ailments of proximity, diminish in the next week or so.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com>
wrote:
Just listened (in part) to a discussion about COVID-19 as it
regards China/US relations. It is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle Flournoy
( former undersecretary of defense and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm
WestExec.), and Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford University’s Hoover
Institution).
Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the death toll within
Wuhan alone was between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have
reported through official channels. He gets his data through croudsourcing
crematoria activity and the number of people picking up urns of deceased family
members.
If you don't have time to listen to this, it is at least worth
a read of the transcript.
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/
bp<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:
This virus doesn't care if you are a Republican, a Democrat,
an Independent, agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it gets you it might
kill you...
Stay smart, listen to doctors and scientists....not ineptus
maximus politicians.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince
<part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
As we test more, we are undoubtedly going to find more
cases that were previously going undetected (asymptomatic infection). This is a
long way from over. The other thing we have not come to grips with is the
uneven spread/mitigation.
There was an interesting graphic for the state of
California showing the state as a whole versus just the Bay Area (Mercury News
this morning). The 7 counties around the bay instituted shelter in place very
early, and it's beginning to show in the statistics. The Bay Area accounts for
almost 18% of the entire state population (7 of the 40 million).
bp<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
Might be Chebyshev BPF though... hopefully...Bessell.
Hopefully not high pass...
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