I also think it's important to realize where we are in this whole mess. They just tested, extensively, an area in the Mission district in SF and released the data yesterday. 2% infection rate mostly in the Latinix population. To understand what goes on with this you need to understand that testing in NYC is returning 20% infection rates. SIP is keeping the rates low and getting us time. When we start seeing other locations going to 20% rapidly like in NYC we will see similar results and refrigerated trucks for the bodies. I don't want it but I think we might be in for some rough road ahead... Utah excepted...

On 05/06/2020 11:12 AM, Adam Moffett wrote:
I read an interesting blog post the other day about flu death estimates from the CDC. The CDC estimates from 12,000 - 60,000 flu deaths annually. And yeah that's in the same ballpark with auto accidents. But then consider that Including people I know and people within a degree or two of me, I can easily think of a dozen people who died in car accidents. I know zero people who died of the flu.

The piece I was reading was regarding how many confirmed flu deaths doctors actually see and typically they say "I remember one case a few years ago" or similar. If there were truly 12,000 to 60,000 flu deaths every year, then doctors in hospitals would see likely see several every year. Apparently the CDC estimates flu deaths, and assumes that a certain percentage of other causes of death were actually caused by the flu, including pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. You can read this on the CDC's FAQ about flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm.

The blogger then speculated that they might err on the high side for flu deaths because they want people to take it seriously and get vaccinated. I couldn't say if that's true. After reading it, it does seem pretty obvious that for whatever reason they've been overcounting flu deaths. If they weren't then we would all be statistically very likely to know of several people who died of the flu.

In any case we don't /really/ know how many people die of the flu either. But we do know, as Ken alludes, we don't typically fill refer trucks with flu victims for lack of a place to put the bodies. Even if we can't agree on specific numerical details, we can directly observe that something abnormal /and not flu like/ is happening.


On 5/6/2020 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

AIER is not a neutral source, according to Wikipedia it is devoted to educating Americans on “the value of personal freedom, free enterprise, property rights, limited government and sound money”. Sounds like a libertarian think tank. I don’t pay much attention to “think tanks”. That seems to be a synonym for partisan advocacy group funded by rich donors, and a place for ex government officials to park when their party is out of power.

Wikipedia says the CDC estimated that flu killed LESS THAN 100,000 Americans, and that was over 2 years.

I was in college in 1968/1969. I did not go to Woodstock, take drugs, or roll around in the mud. No comment on music and sex. I don’t remember particularly high death rates at the time, certainly they didn’t run out of places to stack the bodies.

*From:*AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven Kenney
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 6, 2020 12:04 PM
*To:* af <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

Woodstock happened in the middle of a pandemic.  Whats the difference now?

t was the summer of love: in 1969 a half a million people gathered together to listen to music, take drugs, have sex, roll around in the mud, and share a densely populated area for one long weekend. And guess what? The whole thing happened during a health pandemic. In 1968 the H3N2 pandemic came to the US from Hong Kong. *It killed more than 100,000 Americans, mostly over the age of 65, which was more combined fatalities than both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.* <https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html> Schools, movie theaters, bars, tattoo parlors, restaurants, and, of course, concerts venues stayed open. The stock market didn’t crash, Congress didn’t issue a lock down order, the Federal reserve had no involvement, there was no spike in the suicide rate, violent criminals weren’t freed from jail, and nobody arrested surfers or hair stylists.

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/

--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)

------------------------------------------------------------------------

*From: *"Steven Kenney" <st...@wavedirect.org <mailto:st...@wavedirect.org>>
*To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*Sent: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 12:28:04 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

Swiss Doctor the FACTS about Covid19

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Fact #1 is disturbing already.

According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is on average about 0.20% <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/>, which is in the range of a severe influenza <https://www.ebm-netzwerk.de/en/publications/covid-19> (flu) and about twenty times lower than originally assumed <https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-countries-2020-3> by the WHO.

--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)

------------------------------------------------------------------------

*From: *"Steven Kenney" <st...@wavedirect.org <mailto:st...@wavedirect.org>>
*To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*Sent: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 12:12:52 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

More interesting reading.

Here is an interesting site I've been following that shows the mutations, and branches of mutations and their genomes.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Lets take all the figures into proportion. Is this worse than previous bad years?

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

Are shutdowns really having any tangible effect? Several medical papers have been submitted, here is just one.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

*"**Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic."*

The 6 foot rule effective?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/01/two-metre-rule-reviewed-amid-hope-relaxed-restrictions-could/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256109/Social-distancing-two-metres-apart-based-figure-says-government-adviser.html

" Social distancing orders for people to keep two metres apart to stop the spread of *coronavirus* <https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/coronavirus/index.html> is not based on any scientific research, a government adviser has said."

The Brits had a similar health crisis in 68'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/02/britain-handled-1968-flu-epidemic-shutdown-avoided-second-wave/

I've also attached a picture that was leaked early on when it was detected(of a piece of the actual genome). It shows some interesting differences that don't adhere to the normal mutation process of a corona virus. They are claimed to be "insertions".

--
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)

------------------------------------------------------------------------

*From: *"Ken Hohhof" <af...@kwisp.com <mailto:af...@kwisp.com>>
*To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*Sent: *Tuesday, May 5, 2020 8:50:24 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

Cats are trouble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG5mOd8Ubsk

*From:*AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Tuesday, May 5, 2020 7:29 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

Utah cats are easier to herd than NY cats.

bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

On 5/5/2020 5:26 PM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:

    We have been under 1 in Utah for some time now.

    *From:*Bill Prince

    *Sent:*Tuesday, May 5, 2020 5:51 PM

    *To:*af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>

    *Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

    Remember what I sent out about a month or so ago about all the
    different strains of the virus they've identified? If we get a
    vaccine in a year or so, it will probably end up being only useful
    for a strain of the virus that has died out by then.

    I listened to this yesterday (this morning actually, but I
    digress). It is about the best description of R, R0 (R nought),
    and other variations of R. The point being is that I misunderstood
    the concept of "flattening the curve". I had thought that reducing
    the spread would end up infecting the same number of people over a
    longer period of time (so that we don't overwhelm the health
    system). Turns out, that if it's done right, you don't flatten the
    curve, but you crush the curve. I also believe that the widely
    varied infection/death rates comes from a wide variety of factors;
    population density, version of the virus(es) that are "local",
    extent of social distancing, etc. etc. However, getting 330
    million Americans to follow a plan is way, way worse than herding
    cats.

    
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/is-the-simulation-breaking-cruises-are-going-to-set-sail-again/

    bp

    <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

    On 5/5/2020 1:45 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

        I assume everyone saw the news item today about researchers
        saying the original Wuhan virus mutated to a more contagious
        strain that has pushed out its less aggressive predecessor in
        Europe and the US east coast.  That certainly throws cold
        water on some of the vaccine optimism that was starting to build.

        Also, the way humans are reacting to this (and to climate
        change before it) is starting to make me think we are no
        better at handling new threats than the dinosaurs were when an
        asteroid triggered an ice age.  And that we may all (not just
        the weak and old among us) go the way of the dinosaurs.  I
        mean jeez, folks, it hasn’t even been 2 months and we’re
        turning on each other and shooting guards at Family Dollar and
        talking about gutting and eating our neighbors.  (and their
        stash of Vienna sausages?)

        https://dilbert.com/strip/1990-07-05

        *From:*AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com *On Behalf Of
        *ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>
        *Sent:* Tuesday, May 5, 2020 3:25 PM
        *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
        *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

        Need to see if they will float first.

        *From:*James Howard

        *Sent:*Tuesday, May 5, 2020 2:17 PM

        *To:*'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'

        *Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

        Seems that what was proved by this is that nobody can even
        agree on what they agree about.

        I certainly don’t agree with #2. It is most certainly WAY more
        contagious and easily spread than “the flu” but until we’ve
        gone a full year we won’t know what the actual % death rate is
        (if we even know then due to all the debates about what is
        counted).

        One of the articles posted along the way here stated that this
        is about 300 times more contagious than “the flu” but the
        actual rate of death to cases is lower.  What is the
        definition of being “more deadly”?

        I disagree about shooting everyone though.  I think we should
        all be burned at the stake.  This of course leads to arguments
        about what kind of fuel to use and how to ignite it…….

        *From:*AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of
        *Steve Jones
        *Sent:* Tuesday, May 5, 2020 2:11 PM
        *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com
        <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
        *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?

        so 2-4 off the firs list are off the first list.

        you could probably find somebody to argue number 1, if nobody
        steps up, ill argue it

        settled science doesnt exist, thats the exact opposite of science

        i think we should just shoot everybody. thats got nothing to
        do with the disease, we should just all be shot. a whole lot
        less disagreement that way. Would never work though, we would
        never get past the caliber argument to even get to shooting

        On Tue, May 5, 2020 at 1:48 PM Robert Andrews
        <i...@avantwireless.com <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>> wrote:

            Not sure about a4.   I don't think Hong Kong, South Korea,
            New Zealand,
            Australia has the same statistics as anywhere else but
            that depends upon
            what statistics you are talking about.    Hong Kong stands
            out the most.
               Look at the cases and the deaths as of Today and you
            will wonder WTF
            are they making it all up? Could be, but most think they
            are accurate
            because they dealt with SARS before, they really knew what
            they were
            doing more than any other country.   4 deaths.

            On 05/05/2020 10:41 AM, Steven Kenney wrote:
            > Can summarize this pretty easily.  These are facts that
            probably we can
            > agree upon.
            >
            > 1) Its a RNA based virus similar if not exactly like an
            exosome.
            > 2) Its definitely more deadly than the regular flu
            > 3) It isn't as deadly as everyone estimated it to be.
            (statistics and
            > predictions are all off)
            > 4) Countries who didn't close their economy has similar
            statistics than
            > countries that did.
            > 5) I'm still staying home either way just to be safe!
            >
            > These points are to be debated and NOBODY can say with
            absolute
            > certainty these things are correct.
            >
            > 1) The virus originated from China
            > 2) It originated from a lab studying the virus.
            > 3) It escaped either intentionally or accidentally.
            > 4) The demographics the virus impacts may or may not be
            specific (old,
            > young, white, black, asian etc)
            > 5) The people reporting statistics for deaths/infections
            are 100%
            > accurate.  There are cases all over of under reporting
            and over reporting.
            >
            > --
            > Steven Kenney
            > Network Operations Manager
            > WaveDirect Telecommunications
            > http://www.wavedirect.net
            > (519)737-WAVE (9283)
            >
            >
            
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            > *From: *"Mathew Howard" <mhoward...@gmail.com
            <mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>>
            > *To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
            > *Sent: *Tuesday, May 5, 2020 12:59:03 PM
            > *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?
            >
            > It seems to me, that what really matters is how many
            deaths there have
            > been in excess of what the average was for the same
            period in previous
            > years (yes, I know that's what they're talking about in
            the NYT article,
            > but I'm too lazy to read it all and see how much detail
            they go into).
            > We can argue all day about whether somebody that died of
            a heart attack
            > died because they had covid19 or whether they just had
            an unrelated
            > heart attack and just happened to have a mild case of
            covid, and whether
            > they should be counted, but in the end, it doesn't
            really matter. If
            > say, an average of 10,000 people died in X state in
            April for the past 5
            > years, and this year 15,000 died, then we can pretty
            safely blame 5,000
            > of those deaths on covid. It doesn't really matter if
            6,000 people
            > actually died of covid, but 1000 of them would've died
            of flu anyway,
            > and it just happened to be covid that finished them off
            instead, or if
            > 500 got so sick of sitting in front of the tv that they
            jumped off a
            > bridge and were never infected.
            > I don't think we'll ever have particularly accurate
            numbers of how many
            > people directly died of the infection (other than maybe
            in Utah), but in
            > a few months we should have pretty accurate numbers of
            how many excess
            > deaths there were.
            >
            > On Tue, May 5, 2020 at 11:22 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com
            <mailto:af...@kwisp.com%20%0b>> <mailto:af...@kwisp.com>>
            wrote:
            >
            >     Those who suspect an “agenda” will immediately
            dispute these graphs
            >     because the source is NYT which they will perceive
            as biased.  But
            >     if you read the article, they go out of their way to
            point out
            >     possible errors in the data, as well as other
            influences like
            >     overloaded healthcare system led to people dying of
            other causes,
> but also less deaths due to traffic and violence. And the data as
            >     Bill says is from other sources, the paper didn’t
            make them up to
            >     suit a political agenda or bias.____
            >
            >     __ __
            >
            >
            
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html____
            >
            >     __ __
            >
            >     In other countries like Italy, no doubt the deaths
            were undercounted
            >     because the system was overwhelmed.  Even in NYC,
            the morgues and
            >     crematories are overloaded, they are stuffing bodies
            in refrigerated
            >     semis, you can’t possibly claim these are just the
            normal deaths
            >     being mislabeled as Covid related to suit an
            agenda.  Then you have
            >     all the prison and nursing home deaths.  OK, sure,
            elderly people
            >     croak all the time, it’s a hoax.____
            >
            >     __ __
            >
            >     __ __
            >
            >     *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
<mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com%0b>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
            >     *Sent:* Tuesday, May 5, 2020 11:02 AM
            >     *To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
            <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
            >     *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?____
            >
            >     __ __
            >
            >     The numbers posted on various web sites are neither
            government
            >     sourced or corporate sourced. Hospitals, clinics,
            and morgues are
            >     supplying the numbers. There is a level of
            uncertainty because of
            >     different criteria. That is true for the US cases,
            but probably not
            >     for other countries. For example, the numbers coming
            from China (and
            >     several other countries) are by design government
            based. But to
            >     brush them all off as "government or corporations"
            is being naive at
            >     least.____
            >
            >     I would not say that "most" patients have
            pre-existing conditions.
            >     Maybe a high percentage, but it does not explain why
            such a large
            >     number of otherwise healthy people are being
            infected the way they
            >     are. At some point, we will figure out that there is
            a genetic or
            >     environmental factor that we just do not understand
            yet.____
            >
            >     I (for one) do not believe the numbers are 100%
            accurate, but I also
            >     do not believe the numbers are 100% fictitious
            either. Where you cut
            >     off is probably a personal thing.____
            >
            >     bp____
            >
            > <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>____
            >
            >     __  __
            >
            >     On 5/5/2020 6:55 AM, Steven Kenney wrote:____
            >
            >         You guys work with statistics much?  You think
            the numbers are
            >         accurate?  At what point have you ever seen
            government or
            >         corporations represent 100% accurate numbers?____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >         I'll let you do your own homework.  But I've
            seen hundreds of
            >         reports from all over the place of deaths of
            natural causes
            >         being classified as covid deaths. Since most
            patients have
            >         existing conditions and many were already dying
            and died of
            >         those conditions (heart attack, cancer etc)  are
            being
            >         attributed to covid.  Some people have estimated
            that upward of
            >         20% misrepresented.  So as long as there is 1
            case that is
            >         questionable - the statistics are not accurate. ____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >         --
            >         Steven Kenney
            >         Network Operations Manager
            >         WaveDirect Telecommunications
            > http://www.wavedirect.net
            >         (519)737-WAVE (9283)____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >
            
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            >
            >         *From: *"Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com
            <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>>
            >         <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
            >         *To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com
            <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>> <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
            >         *Sent: *Monday, May 4, 2020 2:04:16 PM
            >         *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Is this good?____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >         The numbers are not "completely" false, but it's
            the best we can
            >         do when we don't actually test all the suspected
            infections. It
            >         also (probably) missed a whole lot of the early
            deaths, as they
            >         were miss-classified. If you think under-ground
            near-do-wells
            >         are planted in all the hospitals around the
            country and are
            >         coordinating false numbers on all the rest of
            us, then I have a
            >         tin hat that might fit real well.____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >         bp____
            >
            > <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>____
            >
            >         __ __
            >
            >         On 5/4/2020 10:48 AM, Steven Kenney wrote:____
            >
            >             Numbers are completely false.  Even with
            that taken into
            >             regard it still is just as lethal as the
            regular flu.  While
            >             it is way more harsh on people if they get
            it, most people
            >             have underlying conditions, or didn't know
            they had them, or
            >             didn't take it serious when they got it. ____
            >
            >             __ __
            >
            > Unfortunately politicians never waste a crisis to further
            >             their agenda. ____
            >
            >             __ __
            >
            >             --
            >             Steven Kenney
            >             Network Operations Manager
            >             WaveDirect Telecommunications
            > http://www.wavedirect.net
            > (519)737-WAVE (9283)____
            >
            >             __ __
            >
            >
            
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            >
            >             *From: *"chuck" <ch...@wbmfg.com
            <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>
            >             *To: *"af" <af@af.afmug.com
            <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>> <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
            >             *Sent: *Monday, May 4, 2020 12:30:08 PM
            >             *Subject: *[AFMUG] OT Is this good?____
            >
            >             __ __
            >
            >             image____
            >
            >             ____
            >
            >             Every time I get my hopes up this curve
            breaks my heart...
            >             Let’s hope we are on the tail of a normal
            curve. ____
            >
            >             6 days in a row decline.  But it has done
            this cycle 3 times
            >             before with a huge spike after. ____
            >
            >
            >             --
            >             AF mailing list
            > AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
            <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
            > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com____
            >
            >
            >
            >             ____
            >
            >
            >         --
            >         AF mailing list
            > AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
            <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
            > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com____
            >
            >
            >
            >         ____
            >
            >     --
            >     AF mailing list
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            <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com>
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