They're not going to listen to you Steve. Since most states don't track the incidence of covid in healthcare workers, the actual number is probably known.
That said, the ones who have had it, probably know about it, so
may defer on getting vaccinated.
Best information I've found:
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
I think their choice is flawed, a huge percentage of "first responders" are already immune from having had it already, I hope they have the intellect to antibody/b cell test first.I dont understand why they dont target the populations where the disease is most predominate first. When my house I'd on fire, I put the first hose on the fire the incoming lines will hit the rest of the structure for protection, starve the fuel.The old people makes sense, but let's be honest here, they're going to have a reason why the supplies dont make it to the nursing homes.Red cross should mobilize a massive blood drive nation wide. They test every single donation for the antibody. Deal should be, you donate blood, you get to be first in line when your tier is targeted. If you have the antibodies, we arent wasting the "limited" vaccines on people who dont need it. But that would actually make sense and actually benefit the nation.
On Wed, Dec 2, 2020, 8:37 AM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
--From the NYT:
Who goes first?
A panel of scientific advisers yesterday released its initial guidelines for who should receive the first coronavirus vaccines — recommendations that will influence states’ policies across the country.
The obvious question on many people’s minds is: When can I expect to be vaccinated? While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it’s possible to lay out a rough expected timeline. I’ve done so below, with help from public health experts and colleagues who are covering the virus.
December: Health care workers and nursing home residents will likely be the first people to receive the vaccine, as the panel recommended.
Up to 40 million doses could be available to Americans before the end of this year, from a combination of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines. That would be enough to vaccinate the three million people who live in long-term-care facilities, as well as most of the country’s 21 million health care workers.
January: Keep in mind that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require a second dose a few weeks later to be effective. So an initial batch of 40 million doses would be enough to vaccinate only 20 million people.
By early next year, Pfizer and Moderna are likely to be able to ship about 70 million doses per month, Moncef Slaoui, a top federal vaccine official, told The Washington Post yesterday. People will likely receive the shots at doctor’s offices, hospitals and pharmacies, as well as at specially created clinics in some places, my colleague Katie Thomas says.
February and March: The next priority groups are likely to be people over the age of 65 (and especially those over 75); people with medical conditions that put them at risk of death if infected; and essential workers, like those in education, food, transportation and law enforcement.
One exception to this second wave of vaccine recipients may be people who have already had the virus, making them immune from it for at least some period of time.
If other companies in addition to Pfizer and Moderna receive approval for their vaccines, the total number shipped each month could reach 150 million by March, Slaoui said.
April, May and June: The most likely scenario is that even people who don’t qualify as a priority — like healthy, nonessential workers younger than 65 — will begin receiving the vaccine by the spring. The vast majority of Americans could be vaccinated by early summer.
Once that happens, life will still not immediately return to normal, partly because the vaccines are not 100 percent effective. “There will still be risks to people,” as Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me.
But those risks will be small compared with today’s risks. Treatments continue to improve, reducing the death rate for people who get the virus. And widespread vaccination will sharply reduce the spread, helping protect even people for whom a vaccine is ineffective. Rivers predicted that social gatherings will again be common and largely safe by the summer.
All things considered, the spring isn’t that far away, which is yet another reason for people to make extra efforts to avoid unnecessary risks — like eating inside restaurants and gathering indoors with friends — for the next few months.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 11/24/2020 7:56 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
The articles I've read stated "dose" is course since it's two half doses of the full vaccine, could be they dont know what they're writing about. And that's preauthorization production, they will all ramp up once there is approval.Dont know where you get the 20 million number unless that was October's numbers
On Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 9:43 AM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
--All the vaccines so far require 2 doses to become effective, and the numbers I heard were more like 20 million per vaccine, so that's 60 million divided by 2, so 30 million. And that is going to mainly go to healthcare workers and high risk.
I don't expect things to turn around until March or so, and that's only if a lot of people get vaccinated.
The next vaccine in the barrel is the Johnson&Johnson one, and that's supposed to be a single dose.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 11/24/2020 7:10 AM, Steve Jones wrote:
With the three vaccines ready to roll out 90 million inoculations in the US this year it may be moot because kit production probably wont be able to meet demand before we have herd vaccination in 2.5 months. But these new home test kits, assuming there is any reliability to them, would have been the ideal pairing with tracing.
Testing is still being handled poorly on the local level. Our health department took a ton of money from the feds for testing, but the drive through they set up only has like a 25 test a day capacity, what a joke that is, will be interesting to see who all goes to jail here. CVS has drop off testing, but you have to do it through the website, and its aweful, my mom couldn't get hers because she has the wrong color Medicare card, whatever the hell that means. The wait at the big test center is 4 to 6 hours. Not complaining about that one, they do massive volume because of all the jackleggery everywhere else.Our hospital and many of the clinics have rapid tests but opt not to use them, instead ship them off.Lots and lots of prison sentences in the near future.
The good thing about this, is unlike the swine flu utter disaster, we built out a very robust pandemic response system in a short period of time. This will be the model future pandemics are managed by after the post mortem. As long as the grifters spend decades in prison, the next time the systems will actually be utilized properly, it will be election proof
On Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 8:34 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com> wrote:
They should stop talking about contact tracing as if it's working, it only works if you have orders of magnitude less cases than we have now.
There is the containment phase, mitigation phase, then who let the dogs out. Guess which phase we're in. At this point, contact tracing is pretty useless, even testing is of questionable use. About all you can do if you test positive is self-isolate and tell your friends, family and coworkers. Even testing is questionable, mostly the people getting tested already suspect they have it.
Steve is right that the states didn't ramp up contact tracing fast enough or successfully, but given the poor cooperation they got from people, I'm not sure how much it would have helped. Now about all they can do is tell people to isolate and tell their contacts. Thank you Capt. Obvious. And like Steve says, the lag time makes even that pretty useless.
If we were New Zealand, contact tracing would be great. Or alternatively, a compliant surveillance society like China.
-----Original Message-----
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Matt Hoppes
Sent: Tuesday, November 24, 2020 2:44 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Ot: covid tracing
Don’t be too relaxed with it. I have a friend who just collapsed in church on Sunday from Covid.
Just singing along and his heart stopped. Perfectly healthy, outside active guy.
They gave him CPR and last I knew he’s still alive in the hospital.
He was a staunch anti masker.
This is a very serious disease and needs to be treated as such.
> On Nov 24, 2020, at 12:54 AM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> What a let down this was. Turns out tracing is a joke. First off, they dont even make contact with the positive test for 3 to 5 days even though the money was for within 24 hours. So it essentially pointless as far as stopping the spread.
> They dont ask for much detail, so thes "x infections traced back to Y event" are pretty much fictitious. I thought it was maybe local to us, nope pretty much the same way across the board.
> We had 8 sick, three positive tests, and only one was actually traced. 6 the seven of us were contacts, the two other positives werent marked different.
> We are almost a week past the quarantine/isolation and still getting the texts.
>
> The point is, yet again in this, the feds provided a massive amount of money and guidance, actually bipartisan, and the states fucked it up. I'm in illinois, so I'm guessing out of every tracing dollar 25 cents when in our fat emperor, erm governors pocket, and another 25 cents went in speaker Madigan criminal defense fund. 50 cents went to the tracers, but they probably have to kick 30 percent back in taxes.
>
> My kids are remote so it's not relevant, but they havent recieved the dept public health release yet, so I figure the boy wont be able to do his drive time friday for drivers ed.
>
> What a joke.
>
> Luckily this isnt the death plague they told us it was. Takes a lot to die of it now and our state numbers are going back down now that the election celebration infections are subsiding.
>
> Had the states done what they were supposed to, infected people would have known 3 to 4 days earlier, and the percent that would quarantine would have.
> This is our 3rd verified exposure, first actual contact tracing, the other two I know for a fact listed us as contacts.
>
> When this is over and the FOIAs start, I'm hoping a lot of state and dept of health officials spend a ton of time in prison. I'm betting there are a ton of phones that were "lost" or smashed with hammers when the investigations start after. Theres a ruthless watchdog group I had to deal with once, actually forced a multi county health department to split, only got one person for embezzlement though. But they know the FOIA game well enough that the health department had to have constant deliveries of pallets of paper. There were a lot of "early retirements"
>
>
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