Moore's law is indeed faster than exponential. Kurzweil extended the cost of computation back to 1900 to include mechanical adding machines and the doubling time is now half as long. Even that is much faster if you go back to the inventions of the printing press, paper, and written language.
The problem is what function do you fit to the data? Some like e^(T-t) have singularities around T = 2150-2200. Some like e^e^t grow rapidly but never reach infinity. Some like tan^-1 t fit but reach a maximum and slow down. The fact that the universe is finite suggests this. Transistor clock speeds stalled in 2010. We can't make feature sizes smaller than atoms, 0.11 nm for silicon. A DRAM capacitor stores a bit using 8 electrons. So how does Moore's law work beyond that? On Thu, Apr 18, 2024, 1:53 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > Oh and you forgot to tell that reuters guy that humans have always been > slow time wasters, and that once AGI is finally made and can improve > itself, it will indeed take off, finally, real fast. > > You don't believe it because there is only humans doing the actual work, > still. Still and only has been. As before. > > But that time will come, soon. No more I gotta go to the bathroom and > complain about your parents because you don't like they way they look. AI > will have no limitations. > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Ta9d6271053bbd3f3-M7b1f8e1fc2841845bc777b06> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Ta9d6271053bbd3f3-Mc8378017db1163da785e9ddf Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
