If the current rate of improvement keeps up. Because each year we get an upgrade to text, image, video, audio, and robot AI.
2024 - Sora, GPT-4o (voice - an upgrade from gpt4o (2023) which might make up for a lack of a text AI upgrade this year if none, and i think dalle4 might be in gpt4o based on the entire page text book output, dalle4 only outputs a sentence at best in my same prompt test), and dozen new humanoid companies and useful labor behavior. 2023 - only arms on tables robot AI, only Luma-like in-lab video AI and public video AI was Pika And Runway Gen-2 which are rather morphy and unstable, gpt4 (can now see, and way more useful than gpt3), dalle3 which is just clearly still not perfect, and musicLM as good as dalle3 yes my people (only my tests show how good it is, they destroyed it fast :D and left up the 100% weak version for over 12 months now haha. My tests also show the true limits of other AIs also) 2022 - gpt3.5 technically as small just-noticeable step under gpt4 but really gptinstruct series also that year if i recall my documentation, so it was a step lower but much higher than gpt3 which was a cussing ignorant teenage level AI. Video AI was extremely poor, it was like cogvideo, barely does much, only the most common stuff moves a bit actually-ok, if lucky. No HD there though haha. DALL-E 2 was interesting but not HD and barely just listening to a complex prompt. 2020 - GPT3. Very poor image AI. Basically no video, just the google car dataset ones that basically decay very fast, around this area of years. This year we got our upgrade dose for each: almost human level video AI, humanoids finally, dalle4 but let's see it might not be in gpt4o or even this year (which would hurt the progress trend lol), and text AI though gpt4o voice can make up for it I guess. Let's see if we get dalle4 and gpt5 text AI this year! I predict perfect text to image AI, video AI, text AI, text to music, and humanoids all by 2026. This is clear if we look at Sora and last years video AI. It's clear if we look at dalle 3, dalle 2 from previous year (my world's hardest prompts show huge improvement each year), and dalle1 from previous year. It's clear if we look at my MusicLM 2023 January tests which are nearly perfect text to music ai from lava techno adventure to mystery ice world. It's clear if we look at robotics progress over the each last years. And it's clear if we look at each year yes even the released 2021 2022 etc for gpts ex. the instruct series versions. 2024 GPT-5 will finally solve almost my entire hard puzzle text test. Instead of tripping up with too many items ex. use spoon to tickle the truck even though i said to follow physics etc. 2025 it will solve it. 2026 it will solve anything else I could have written. 2024 DALL-E 4 will almost solve my hardest text prompt that includes things like extended arms. 2025 it will solve it 98%. 2026 it will solve it and anything else I could have wrote. 2024 will be near perfect text to music AI. 2025 AI music it will be perfect, no cracks. 2026 will be most perfect and impossible for you to prove it wrong. 2024 Sora can already play forward games and movies, sort of. Like a dream, it lasts maybe 2 mins at best. 2025 will be a full game and movie, with sound, maybe even playable controls. But not full perfect game or movie no not until 2026. There's a lot to a video game. I predict also end of 2025 we see a video showing a mentor human asked to pop a hammer into existence in their hand, and hti the wooden table and turn it to fire, then turn that to ice, then throw the hammer and have it turn to duct, and put up a chalk board when asked to explain advanced math, and open a toolbox and demonstrate such math too in real scientific tests. 2026 would be full AGI. OpenAI will launch a breeding ground testbed for AGI self-recursive improvement at the end of 2026 I predict. Mid 2026 I predict humanoids walking around just like us, but they don't waste any time sitting around or complaining, they use the most of their brilliance and energy. With nanobot technology at end of 2027 since it is so key to success. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T9798384f526c07e8-M066be1ae59050cfa527a282b Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
