I find it a little ironic, reading this thread right after having an
argument with Claude 3 about whether -3 is bigger or smaller than -2, and
being unable to convince it of its error. These things are not as smart as
we might think they are. And if they are smart enough to seem human
already, well, that tells you something.

I spend a lot of time with LLMs these days, since I pay my bills by
training them. My experience is that they are fragile just like all
previous AI approaches; they just hide it better. It doesn't take much to
push one right past the ability to make sense, and they never seem to
recognize when that point is reached. Even a low-intelligence human will
stop you and tell you they don't understand, or they don't know, or
something -- barring interference from their ego, of course. These models
lack that introspective ability. This is because they aren't paving new
roads, they are just traversing old ones. If a line of thought is a
familiar one, or can be composed through extremely simple interpolation of
familiar ones, they are great. The moment you move into truly new
territory, they fall apart. We have successfully built technology where the
curtain we should look behind is embedded behind so much showiness and
sleight of hand that we can't be bothered to take the peek most of the
time. So we collectively assume the great and powerful Oz is real.

For me, the goal post has not moved. We simply still have not built
anything that can truly be said to have a mind or conscious experience. The
Turing test was never a good way of measuring that; how else could Eliza
have done so well?

On Mon, Jun 17, 2024 at 1:34 PM Mike Archbold <jazzbo...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Now time for the usual goal post movers
>
> On Mon, Jun 17, 2024 at 7:49 AM Matt Mahoney <mattmahone...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> It's official now. GPT-4 was judged to be human 54% of the time, compared
>> to 22% for ELIZA and 50% for GPT-3.5.
>> https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.08007
>>
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