Has anyone read AI-2027? https://ai-2027.com/
Or AI-2040 Plan A? https://ai-2040.com/ In the first article, written in 2025 by a group of AI futurists, they predict AGI in 2027 and present a fast and slow scenario. In the fast scenario, AI kills all humans by 2030. Plan A is an update where, in this scenario, the US and China agree to slow down AI development enough to solve the alignment problem by 2040, when we cede control. By the late 2030's, a tax on computers and robots results in a dividend that rapidly grows to $10M per year. I don't believe change will happen that fast. I believe we are headed for a world without war, borders, prison, or poverty, where AI gives us everything we want. We will reject human contact, lose communication skills, become socially isolated, and stop having children. But that's not until the next century. In 50 years, the world population will have already peaked and be declining. Most people will be African or have mixed African descent. China will be the global superpower. The US economy will be on par with India, but still more advanced than today. Africa will have modern infrastructure and eradicate malaria, making it a popular tourist destination. The largest religion will be Islam. Global life expectancy will rise from 73 to 80. 2040 will be as different from today as we are from 2010, allowing for a bit of acceleration. That's still a lot. In 2010 we did not have smart phones, social media, internet censorship, online maps, language translation, voice recognition, crypto currency, overnight delivery, or legal cannabis. Same sex marriage and fertility collapse were both new. AI progress will slow down even without an (unlikely) treaty with China because: 1. Moore's law has ended for silicon transistors because we can't make them any smaller. We haven't noticed yet, just like it took a few years to notice that clock speeds stalled at 2-3 GHz in 2010. 2. The biggest cost of AI after hardware is human knowledge collection. There's only 20 TB of text we can scrape off the Internet for free, which is less than in 2010. The other 8 million TB of human knowledge in our brains has to be collected at 5-10 bits per second per person. This is being accomplished through pervasive surveillance but still takes years to decades. 3. Exponential recursive self improvement is limited by how fast we can design and build stuff and test how it interacts with humans, about 2-5% per year. AI won't speed that up because AI is about modeling human intelligence (Turing test), not about universal intelligence or evolution. There is no reason to build something that doesn't give us what we want. We solved the hard step of alignment by training AI on human knowledge. It knows what we want better than we do. What are your predictions? -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T574b10b838cba731-Mc6b8c95933a2ac2368c5e2ca Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
