I prefer Goertzel's take on AI Alignment, that it's a distraction from real, tangible issues that are already happening. When you automate one job at a time, don't be surprised if a growing batch of angry people with nothing to lose emerges from the rubble before the supposed benefits have manifested.
https://bengoertzel.substack.com/p/why-everyone-dies-gets-agi-all-wrong Yes, I've read ai-2027, and consider it mediocre science fiction at best. On Thu, Jul 9, 2026 at 2:54 PM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: > > Has anyone read AI-2027? https://ai-2027.com/ > > Or AI-2040 Plan A? https://ai-2040.com/ > > In the first article, written in 2025 by a group of AI futurists, they > predict AGI in 2027 and present a fast and slow scenario. In the fast > scenario, AI kills all humans by 2030. > > Plan A is an update where, in this scenario, the US and China agree to slow > down AI development enough to solve the alignment problem by 2040, when we > cede control. By the late 2030's, a tax on computers and robots results in a > dividend that rapidly grows to $10M per year. > > I don't believe change will happen that fast. I believe we are headed for a > world without war, borders, prison, or poverty, where AI gives us everything > we want. We will reject human contact, lose communication skills, become > socially isolated, and stop having children. But that's not until the next > century. > > In 50 years, the world population will have already peaked and be declining. > Most people will be African or have mixed African descent. China will be the > global superpower. The US economy will be on par with India, but still more > advanced than today. Africa will have modern infrastructure and eradicate > malaria, making it a popular tourist destination. The largest religion will > be Islam. Global life expectancy will rise from 73 to 80. > > 2040 will be as different from today as we are from 2010, allowing for a bit > of acceleration. That's still a lot. In 2010 we did not have smart phones, > social media, internet censorship, online maps, language translation, voice > recognition, crypto currency, overnight delivery, or legal cannabis. Same sex > marriage and fertility collapse were both new. > > AI progress will slow down even without an (unlikely) treaty with China > because: > > 1. Moore's law has ended for silicon transistors because we can't make them > any smaller. We haven't noticed yet, just like it took a few years to notice > that clock speeds stalled at 2-3 GHz in 2010. > > 2. The biggest cost of AI after hardware is human knowledge collection. > There's only 20 TB of text we can scrape off the Internet for free, which is > less than in 2010. The other 8 million TB of human knowledge in our brains > has to be collected at 5-10 bits per second per person. This is being > accomplished through pervasive surveillance but still takes years to decades. > > 3. Exponential recursive self improvement is limited by how fast we can > design and build stuff and test how it interacts with humans, about 2-5% per > year. AI won't speed that up because AI is about modeling human intelligence > (Turing test), not about universal intelligence or evolution. There is no > reason to build something that doesn't give us what we want. We solved the > hard step of alignment by training AI on human knowledge. It knows what we > want better than we do. > > What are your predictions? > > -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] > > > > > > > > > > > > > Artificial General Intelligence List / AGI / see discussions + participants + > delivery options Permalink ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T574b10b838cba731-M2bf4ae87cde53e1c47a76a2c Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
