My predictions are based on extrapolating long term trends. This doesn't always work, but it is the best we can do. We have had centuries of economic growth, now about 3% per year over the last century. Life expectancy worldwide has been increasing 0.2 years per year for the last century, from 15 in prehistoric times to 73 today. Global computing capacity has doubled every 3 years since 1950, but the longer trend can traced back to the invention of writing on clay tablets in Mesopotamia in 3000 BC.
I predict a world without war because there are never wars between two democracies, and there has been a long term shift from dictatorships to democracies, most notably in Europe and South America. There is a long term trend toward more international trade and travel, made easier by air travel, the Internet, and adopting English as a global language. Countries that trade have less incentive for war. I can't say there won't be a nuclear war, but the longer we go without one, the less likely it seems. Russia could nuke Ukraine, Israel could nuke Iran, and India and Pakistan could nuke each other. They must have good reasons not to. The end of prisons seems less obvious. Crime isn't going to end. But as technology gets cheaper and human services like criminal justice get more expensive, there will be a shift toward prevention. Cars are nearly impossible to steal now. So is cash, because everyone uses credit cards. To deal with shoplifting, stores will eliminate in store shopping and only offer online pickup and delivery by self driving carts. Drug use will be legalized and regulated. Crimes of random violence will be reduced by eliminating large events and closing places where people gather such as schools, stadiums, theaters, and convention centers, because we can get the same experiences in our smart homes. Domestic violence will go away when people live alone with robot companions. This isn't ideal, but neither is the current system where 95% of felonies in the US don't go to trial. It is expensive to get a proper conviction, and it will only get worse with legal challenges to the current practice of holding the accused in jail for a year awaiting trial and then offering to release them on time served plus probation for a guilty plea. At some point it will get cheaper to simply stop arresting people and put up with some crime. My guess is 50 years in some developed countries and 100 years worldwide. -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T0ea44555ed99e6e4-M6642448d907a7d28f69dc108> ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T0ea44555ed99e6e4-M3133e73c2d37b305bb6fb1c7 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
