To be balanced maybe the abstract should mention something about risks since the title implies the book is about costs and risks.
Best regards RG On 12/07/2012 11:37 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
Here is a draft of a paper I am working on. I would appreciate any comments. You might find the content somewhat controversial. The Costs and Risks of AI Abstract In 2011, we paid people worldwide US $70 trillion to do work that machines did not know how to do. Automating the global economy will require solving hard problems in language, vision, robotics, art, and modeling human behavior. We estimate the computational costs to be 10^26 operations per second, 10^25 bytes of memory, 10^19 input/output bits per second, and 10^17 to 10^18 bits of human knowledge collected at a rate of 7 bits per person per second, assuming a cultural acceptance of the disappearance of privacy. The design and software effort is at least 10^6 lines of code, but could be as high as 10^12 lines without significant cost impact in order to optimize for insufficient computing power before 2030 if Moore’s Law continues, and to compensate for insufficient human knowledge after that. The total cost will be on the order of $1 quadrillion, a global effort lasting decades. An immediate consequence of the availability of models of the minds of living people will be the ability to replace failed body parts, including brains, and to copy human memory, effectively solving the problem of death. This practice will result, with high probability, in the quick end of Homo Sapiens, and possibly all DNA-based life, due to competition for space, matter, and energy by autonomous, self replicating robots. Rest of paper: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cQiaH81rB5l9eLRYZFSi_tOLzRzOsY8wVruimPUWybg/edit# -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/9931394-ef56be78 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
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